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Abstract:
A mathematical analysis of the stratospheric photochemical system (gas
phase reactions only) shows the existence of potential catastrophe
mechanisms which could produce a dramatic reduction in the ozone
concentration near 25 km altitude. The conditions leading to such
catastrophe correspond to a relatively modest (i.e., factor 2-2.5)
increase in the stratospheric source of reactive nitrogen (NOx). For a
tenfold increase in the source of reactive chlorine (ClOx), the ozone
system exhibits a large amplitude oscillatory behavior with a period of
several tens of years. Transport processes could, however, damp these
dramatic changes resulting from the nonlinear nature of the
stratospheric chemical system.
