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  Staying afloat on Neurath's boat: Heuristics for sequential causal learning

Bramley, N., Dayan, P., & Lagnado, D. (2015). Staying afloat on Neurath's boat: Heuristics for sequential causal learning. In D. Noelle, R. Dale, A. Warlaumont, J. Yoshimi, T. Matlock, C. Jennings, et al. (Eds.), 37th Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society (CogSci 2015): Mind, Technology and Society (pp. 262-267). Austin, TX, USA: Cognitive Science Society.

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Item Permalink: https://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0004-BFA3-D Version Permalink: https://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0006-B42A-0
Genre: Conference Paper

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https://mindmodeling.org/cogsci2015/papers/0055/index.html (Publisher version)
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 Creators:
Bramley, N, Author
Dayan, P1, Author           
Lagnado, D, Author
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1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Abstract: Causal models are key to flexible and efficient exploitation of the environment. However, learning causal structure is hard, with massive spaces of possible models, hard-to-compute marginals and the need to integrate diverse evidence over many instances. We report on two experiments in which participants learnt about probabilistic causal systems involving three and four variables from sequences of interventions. Participants were broadly successful, albeit exhibiting sequential dependence and floundering under high background noise. We capture their behavior with a simple model, based on the ``Neurath's ship'' metaphor for scientific progress, that neither maintains a probability distribution, nor computes exact likelihoods.

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 Dates: 2015-072015-11
 Publication Status: Issued
 Pages: -
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Title: 37th Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society (CogSci 2015)
Place of Event: Pasadena, CA, USA
Start-/End Date: 2015-07-22 - 2015-07-25

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Title: 37th Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society (CogSci 2015): Mind, Technology and Society
Source Genre: Proceedings
 Creator(s):
Noelle, DC, Editor
Dale, R, Editor
Warlaumont, AS, Editor
Yoshimi, J, Editor
Matlock, T, Editor
Jennings, CD, Editor
Maglio, PP, Editor
Affiliations:
-
Publ. Info: Austin, TX, USA : Cognitive Science Society
Pages: - Volume / Issue: - Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 262 - 267 Identifier: ISBN: 978-0-9911967-2-2