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  More accurate quantification of model-to-model agreement in externally forced climatic responses over the coming century

Maher, N., Power, S. B., & Marotzke, J. (2021). More accurate quantification of model-to-model agreement in externally forced climatic responses over the coming century. Nature Communications, 12: 788. doi:10.1038/s41467-020-20635-w.

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Datensatz-Permalink: https://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0007-4AFD-A Versions-Permalink: https://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0007-E485-1
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© The authors This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder
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 Urheber:
Maher, Nicola1, Autor           
Power, Scott B., Autor
Marotzke, Jochem1, Autor           
Affiliations:
1Director’s Research Group OES, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, ou_913553              

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 Zusammenfassung: Separating how model-to-model differences in the forced response (UMD) and internal variability (UIV) contribute to the uncertainty in climate projections is important, but challenging. Reducing UMD increases confidence in projections, while UIV characterises the range of possible futures that might occur purely by chance. Separating these uncertainties is limited in traditional multi-model ensembles because most models have only a small number of realisations; furthermore, some models are not independent. Here, we use six largely independent single model initial-condition large ensembles to separate the contributions of UMD and UIV in projecting 21st-century changes of temperature, precipitation, and their temporal variability under strong forcing (RCP8.5). We provide a method that produces similar results using traditional multi-model archives. While UMD is larger than UIV for both temperature and precipitation changes, UIV is larger than UMD for the changes in temporal variability of both temperature and precipitation, between 20° and 80° latitude in both hemispheres. Over large regions and for all variables considered here except temporal temperature variability, models agree on the sign of the forced response whereas they disagree widely on the magnitude. Our separation method can readily be extended to other climate variables

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Sprache(n): eng - English
 Datum: 2020-012020-102021-02-042021-02-04
 Publikationsstatus: Erschienen
 Seiten: -
 Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
 Inhaltsverzeichnis: -
 Art der Begutachtung: Expertenbegutachtung
 Identifikatoren: DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-20635-w
 Art des Abschluß: -

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Titel: Nature Communications
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift
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Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: London : Nature Publishing Group
Seiten: - Band / Heft: 12 Artikelnummer: 788 Start- / Endseite: - Identifikator: ISSN: 1758-678x
CoNE: https://pure.mpg.de/cone/journals/resource/1758-678x