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要旨:
Analyzing insurance-loss data we derive stochastic storm-damage functions for residential buildings. On district level we fit power-law
relations between daily loss and maximum wind speed, typically spanning
more than 4 orders of magnitude. The estimated exponents for 439 German
districts roughly range from 8 to 12. In addition, we find correlations
among the parameters and socio-demographic data, which we employ in a
simplified parametrization of the damage function with just 3
independent parameters for each district. A Monte Carlo method is used
to generate loss estimates and confidence bounds of daily and annual
storm damages in Germany. Our approach reproduces the annual progression
of winter storm losses and enables to estimate daily losses over a wide
range of magnitudes. Citation: Prahl, B. F., D. Rybski, J. P. Kropp, O.
Burghoff, and H. Held (2012), Applying stochastic small-scale damage
functions to German winter storms, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L06806, doi:
10.1029/2012GL050961.
