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Abstract:
Regional sea level changes can deviate substantially from those of the
global mean, can vary on a broad range of timescales, and in some
regions can even lead to a reversal of long-term global mean sea level
trends. The underlying causes are associated with dynamic variations in
the ocean circulation as part of climate modes of variability and with
an isostatic adjustment of Earth's crust to past and ongoing changes in
polar ice masses and continental water storage. Relative to the
coastline, sea level is also affected by processes such as earthquakes
and anthropogenically induced subsidence. Present-day regional sea level
changes appear to be caused primarily by natural climate variability.
However, the imprint of anthropogenic effects on regional sea
level-whether due to changes in the atmospheric forcing or to mass
variations in the system-will grow with time as climate change
progresses, and toward the end of the twenty-first century, regional sea
level patterns will be a superposition of climate variability modes and
natural and anthropogenically induced static sea level patterns.
Attribution and predictions of ongoing and future sea level changes
require an expanded and sustained climate observing system.
