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Abstract:
COVID-19 cases are very high across
Europe. Current measures are not
reducing virus spread sufficiently,
and new SARS-CoV-2 variants are
emerging. The B.1.1.7 and B1.351
variants, first identified in the UK
and South Africa, respectively,
have spread to many European
countries.1–5 Although the biological
properties of these variants are yet
to be characterised, epidemiological
data suggest they have a higher
transmissibility than the original
variant.6,7 These viral properties could
increase the effective reproduction
number R in the population. In the
case of B.1.1.7, estimates suggest
R could increase from 1 to about
1.4 with no change in population
behavior.3,4 If true, many countries
that have succeeded in reducing R
to 1 or less will be confronted with
a novel wave of viral spread despite
the current measures.8,9
Once a more
contagious variant has established
itself, stabilising the number of new
infections will become increasingly
difficult.
