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Astrophysics, High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena, astro-ph.HE, Astrophysics, Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics, astro-ph.IM,General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology, gr-qc
Abstract:
The increasing sensitivities of pulsar timing arrays to ultra-low frequency
(nHz) gravitational waves promises to achieve direct gravitational wave
detection within the next 5-10 years. While there are many parallel efforts
being made in the improvement of telescope sensitivity, the detection of stable
millisecond pulsars and the improvement of the timing software, there are
reasons to believe that the methods used to accurately determine the
time-of-arrival (TOA) of pulses from radio pulsars can be improved upon. More
specifically, the determination of the uncertainties on these TOAs, which
strongly affect the ability to detect GWs through pulsar timing, may be
unreliable. We propose two Bayesian methods for the generation of pulsar TOAs
starting from pulsar "search-mode" data and pre-folded data. These methods are
applied to simulated toy-model examples and in this initial work we focus on
the issue of uncertainties in the folding period. The final results of our
analysis are expressed in the form of posterior probability distributions on
the signal parameters (including the TOA) from a single observation.