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  Multiyear Prediction of Monthly Mean Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26.5 degrees N

Matei, D., Baehr, J., Jungclaus, J. H., Haak, H., Mueller, W. A., & Marotzke, J. (2012). Multiyear Prediction of Monthly Mean Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26.5 degrees N. Science, 335(6064), 76-79. doi:10.1126/science.1210299.

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Item Permalink: https://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-0014-3A5B-1 Version Permalink: https://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-0026-A69B-2
Genre: Journal Article

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 Creators:
Matei, Daniela1, Author           
Baehr, Johanna2, Author           
Jungclaus, Johann H.1, Author           
Haak, Helmut1, Author           
Mueller, Wolfgang A.3, Author           
Marotzke, Jochem1, Author           
Affiliations:
1Director’s Research Group OES, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, ou_913553              
2CRG Climate System Data Assimilation, Research Area A: Climate Dynamics and Variability, The CliSAP Cluster of Excellence, External Organizations, Bundesstraße 53, 20146 Hamburg, DE, ou_2025289              
3Decadal Climate Predictions - MiKlip, ou_1479671              

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Free keywords: NORTH-ATLANTIC; CLIMATE; VARIABILITY; PREDICTABILITY; MODELScience & Technology - Other Topics;
 Abstract: Attempts to predict changes in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) have yielded little success to date. Here, we demonstrate predictability for monthly mean AMOC strength at 26.5 degrees N for up to 4 years in advance. This AMOC predictive skill arises predominantly from the basin-wide upper-mid-ocean geostrophic transport, which in turn can be predicted because we have skill in predicting the upper-ocean zonal density difference. Ensemble forecasts initialized between January 2008 and January 2011 indicate a stable AMOC at 26.5 degrees N until at least 2014, despite a brief wind-induced weakening in 2010. Because AMOC influences many aspects of climate, our results establish AMOC as an important potential carrier of climate predictability.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 201220122012
 Publication Status: Issued
 Pages: 4
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: ISI: 000298846200053
DOI: 10.1126/science.1210299
 Degree: -

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Title: Science
  Other : Science
Source Genre: Journal
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Publ. Info: Washington, D.C. : American Association for the Advancement of Science
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 335 (6064) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 76 - 79 Identifier: ISSN: 0036-8075
CoNE: https://pure.mpg.de/cone/journals/resource/991042748276600