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  Improved forecast skill in the tropics in the new MiKlip decadal climate predictions

Pohlmann, H., Mueller, W. A., Kulkarni, K., Kameswarrao, M., Matei, D., Vamborg, F., et al. (2013). Improved forecast skill in the tropics in the new MiKlip decadal climate predictions. Geophysical Research Letters, 40, 5798-5802. doi:10.1002/2013GL058051.

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Item Permalink: http://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-0014-7405-9 Version Permalink: http://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-0023-F933-3
Genre: Journal Article

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 Creators:
Pohlmann, Holger1, Author              
Mueller, Wolfgang A.1, Author              
Kulkarni, K., Author
Kameswarrao, M., Author
Matei, Daniela2, Author              
Vamborg, Freja1, Author              
Kadow, C., Author
Illing, S., Author
Marotzke, Jochem2, Author              
Affiliations:
1Decadal Climate Predictions - MiKlip, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, ou_1479671              
2Director’s Research Group OES, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, ou_913553              

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Free keywords: CMIP5; decadal prediction; quasi-biennial oscillation; tropical bias; model resolution
 Abstract: We introduce an improved initialization to the decadal predictions performed for the Mittelfristige Klimaprognosen (MiKlip) project based on the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model and furthermore test the effect of increased ocean and atmosphere model resolutions. The new initialization includes both a more sophisticated oceanic initialization and additionally an atmospheric initialization. We compare the performance of retrospective decadal forecasts over the past 50 years with that of the previous system. The new oceanic initialization considerably improves the performance in terms of surface air temperature over the tropical oceans on the 2–5 years time scale, which also helps to improve the predictive skill of global mean surface air temperature on this time scale. The higher model resolution improves the predictive skill of surface air temperature over the tropical Pacific even further. Through the newly introduced atmospheric initialization, the quasi-biennial oscillation exhibits predictive skill of up to 4 years when a sufficiently high vertical atmospheric resolution is used.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 20132013-11-132013-11-16
 Publication Status: Published in print
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Method: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1002/2013GL058051
 Degree: -

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Title: Geophysical Research Letters
  Abbreviation : Geophys. Res. Lett.
Source Genre: Journal
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Publ. Info: Washington, D.C. : American Geophysical Union
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 40 Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 5798 - 5802 Identifier: ISSN: 0094-8276
CoNE: /journals/resource/954925465217