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  Contribution of regional climate drivers to future winter sea-level changes in the Baltic Sea estimated by statistical methods and simulations of climate models

Hünicke, B. (2010). Contribution of regional climate drivers to future winter sea-level changes in the Baltic Sea estimated by statistical methods and simulations of climate models. International Journal of Earth Sciences, 99(8), 1721-1730. doi:10.1007/s00531-009-0470-0.

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 Creators:
Hünicke, Birgit1, 2, Author           
Affiliations:
1IMPRS on Earth System Modelling, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, Bundesstraße 53, 20146 Hamburg, DE, ou_913547              
2B 4 - Regional Storms and their Marine Impacts, Research Area B: Climate Manifestations and Impacts, The CliSAP Cluster of Excellence, External Organizations, Bundesstraße 53, 20146 Hamburg, DE, ou_1863484              

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Free keywords: SCALE ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION; NORTH-ATLANTIC OSCILLATION; LATE 21ST-CENTURY; GLOBAL-MODELS; VARIABILITY; PRESSURE; TRENDS; PRECIPITATION; SCENARIOSBaltic Sea; Regional sea level; Climate modelling; Statistical downscaling; Future trends; IPCC AR4 simulations;
 Abstract: A statistical downscaling approach is applied to the output of five different global climate model simulations driven by twenty-first century future scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations The contribution of sea-level pressure (SLP) and precipitation changes to regional future winter sea-level changes is estimated for four Baltic sea-level stations by establishing statistical relationships between sea level as predictand and large-scale climate fields as predictors Using SLP as predictor for the central and eastern Baltic Sea level stations, three climate models lead to statistically significant twenty-first century future trends in the range of the order of 1-2 mm/year Using precipitation as predictor for the stations in the southern Baltic coast all five models lead to statistically significant trends with a range of the order of 0 4 mm/year These numbers are smaller, but of the order of magnitude as the predicted global sea-level rise

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2010-12
 Publication Status: Published in print
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: ISI: 000285070100003
DOI: 10.1007/s00531-009-0470-0
 Degree: -

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Title: International Journal of Earth Sciences
  Other : Int. J. Earth Sci.
Source Genre: Journal
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Publ. Info: Berlin : Springer-Verlag
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 99 (8) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 1721 - 1730 Identifier: ISSN: 1437-3254
CoNE: https://pure.mpg.de/cone/journals/resource/954925624290