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  Scenarios of global bioenergy production: The trade-offs between agricultural expansion, intensification and trade

Lotze-Campen, H., Popp, A., Beringer, T., Mueller, C., Bondeau, A., Rost, S., et al. (2010). Scenarios of global bioenergy production: The trade-offs between agricultural expansion, intensification and trade. Ecological Modelling, 221, 2188-2196. doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.10.002.

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Item Permalink: http://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-0015-3DA5-3 Version Permalink: http://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-0015-3E1D-2
Genre: Journal Article

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 Creators:
Lotze-Campen, Hermann1, Author
Popp, Alexander1, Author
Beringer, Tim2, 3, Author              
Mueller, Christoph2, 3, Author              
Bondeau, Alberte1, Author
Rost, Stefanie1, Author
Lucht, Wolfgang1, Author
Affiliations:
1external, ou_persistent22              
2IMPRS on Earth System Modelling, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, ou_913547              
3Potsdam Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK), ou_persistent22              

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 Abstract: Increased future demands for food, fibre and fuels from biomass can only be met if the available land and water resources on a global scale are used and managed as efficiently as possible. The main routes for making the global agricultural system more productive are through intensification and technological change on currently used agricultural land, land expansion into currently non-agricultural areas, and international trade in agricultural commodities and processed goods. In order to analyse the trade-offs and synergies between these options, we present a global bio-economic modelling approach with a special focus on spatially explicit land and water constraints as well as technological change in agricultural production. For a global bioenergy demand scenario reaching 100 ExaJoule (EJ) until 2055 we derive a required rate of productivity increase on agricultural land between 1.2 and 1.4 percent per year under different land allocation options. A very high pressure for yield increase occurs in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East, even without additional bioenergy demand. Moreover, we analyse the implicit values (shadow prices) of limited water resources. The shadow prices for bioenergy are provided as a metric for assessing the trade-offs between different land allocation options and as a link between the agricultural and energy sector. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2010
 Publication Status: Published in print
 Pages: -
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 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Method: Peer
 Degree: -

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Title: Ecological Modelling
Source Genre: Journal
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Publ. Info: Amsterdam : Elsevier
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 221 Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 2188 - 2196 Identifier: ISSN: 0304-3800
CoNE: /journals/resource/954925511442