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Free keywords:
typhoon statistics, typhoon scenarios, downscaling, best track data
Abstract:
An atmospheric regional climate model was employed for describingweather
of E Asia for the last decades as well as for the comingcentury.
Re-analyses provided by Global National Center for EnvironmentalPrediction
- National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR)for the past
six decades, as well a scenario generated by the ECHAM5/MPI-OMmodel
were dynamically downscaled to a 50 km grid using a state-of-the-artregional
climate model (CCLM). Using an automated tracking system,all tropical
cyclones (TCs) are identified in the multi-decadal simulations.The
different analysis products of TC-statistics were found to differstrongly,
also in recent times when the data base was good, so thatin the long-term
statistics 1950-2010 inhomogeneities mask real climaticvariations.
The 1948-2009 time series of the annual numbers of TCsin the NCEP-driven
simulation and in the JMA best track data (BT)correlate favourably.
The number is almost constant, even if thereis a slight tendency
in BT to show less storms, whereas CCLM showssomewhat more storms,
which became more intense. The ECHAM5/MPI-OM-drivenscenario simulation,
subject to 1959-2100 observed and projectedgreenhouse gas concentrations,
shows a reduction of the number ofstorms, which maintains a stationary
intensity in terms of maximumsustained winds and minimum pressure.
Thus, BT-trends and downscaledtrends were found to be inconsistent,
but also the downscaled trends1948-2009 and the trends derived from
the A1B-scenario were different.
