English
 
Help Privacy Policy Disclaimer
  Advanced SearchBrowse

Item

ITEM ACTIONSEXPORT
 
 
DownloadE-Mail
  Seasonal to interannual Arctic sea ice predictability in current global climate models

Tietsche, S., Day, J. J., Guemas, V., Hurlin, W. J., Keeley, S. P. E., Matei, D., et al. (2014). Seasonal to interannual Arctic sea ice predictability in current global climate models. Geophysical Research Letters, 41, 1035-1043. doi:10.1002/2013GL058755.

Item is

Files

show Files
hide Files
:
Tietsche_et_al-2014-Geophysical_Research_Letters.pdf (Publisher version), 2MB
Name:
Tietsche_et_al-2014-Geophysical_Research_Letters.pdf
Description:
OA Gold Option
OA-Status:
Visibility:
Public
MIME-Type / Checksum:
application/pdf / [MD5]
Technical Metadata:
Copyright Date:
-
Copyright Info:
-
License:
-

Locators

show

Creators

show
hide
 Creators:
Tietsche, S., Author
Day, J. J., Author
Guemas, V., Author
Hurlin, W. J., Author
Keeley, S. P. E., Author
Matei, Daniela1, Author                 
Msadek, R., Author
Collins, M., Author
Hawkins, E., Author
Affiliations:
1Director’s Research Group OES, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, ou_913553              

Content

show
hide
Free keywords: -
 Abstract: We establish the first intermodel comparison of seasonal to interannual predictability of present-day Arctic climate by performing coordinated sets of idealized ensemble predictions with four state-of-the-art global climate models. For Arctic sea ice extent and volume, there is potential predictive skill for lead times of up to 3 years, and potential prediction errors have similar growth rates and magnitudes across the models. Spatial patterns of potential prediction errors differ substantially between the models, but some features are robust. Sea ice concentration errors are largest in the marginal ice zone, and in winter they are almost zero away from the ice edge. Sea ice thickness errors are amplified along the coasts of the Arctic Ocean, an effect that is dominated by sea ice advection. These results give an upper bound on the ability of current global climate models to predict important aspects of Arctic climate.

Details

show
hide
Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2014-02-16
 Publication Status: Issued
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1002/2013GL058755
 Degree: -

Event

show

Legal Case

show

Project information

show

Source 1

show
hide
Title: Geophysical Research Letters
  Other : Geophys. Res. Letts.
  Abbreviation : Geophys. Res. Lett.
Source Genre: Journal
 Creator(s):
Affiliations:
Publ. Info: Washington, D.C. : American Geophysical Union
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 41 Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 1035 - 1043 Identifier: ISSN: 0094-8276
CoNE: https://pure.mpg.de/cone/journals/resource/954925465217