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  Uncertainty and the Size Distribution of Rewards from Innovation

Scherer, F. M., Harhoff, D., & Kukies, J. (2000). Uncertainty and the Size Distribution of Rewards from Innovation. Journal of Evolutionary Economics, 10(1-2), 175-200. doi:10.1007/s001910050011.

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Item Permalink: http://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-0019-92C0-F Version Permalink: http://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-0019-92C1-D
Genre: Journal Article

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 Creators:
Scherer, F. M.1, Author
Harhoff, Dietmar1, Author              
Kukies, Jörg1, Author
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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Free keywords: Innovation; Risk; Uncertainty; Skew distributions; Gibrat's Law
 Abstract:  Previous research has shown that the distribution of profit outcomes from technological innovations is highly skew. This paper builds upon those detailed findings to ask: what stochastic processes can plausibly be inferred to have generated the observed distributions? After reviewing the evidence, this paper reports on several stochastic model simulations, including a pure Gibrat random walk with monthly changes approximating those observed for high-technology startup company stocks and a more richly specified model blending internal and external market uncertainties. The most highly specified simulations suggest that the set of profit potentials tapped by innovators is itself skew-distributed and that the number of entrants into innovation races is more likely to be independent of market size than stochastically dependent upon it.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2000
 Publication Status: Published in print
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Method: -
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1007/s001910050011
 Degree: -

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Title: Journal of Evolutionary Economics
Source Genre: Journal
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Publ. Info: Berlin : Springer International
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 10 (1-2) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 175 - 200 Identifier: ISSN: 0936-9937
CoNE: /journals/resource/954925571863