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Abstract:
Earth system models are indispensable tools in climate studies. The
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) is a coordinated effort of
the Earth system modeling community to intercompare existing models. An
accurate simulation of surface solar radiation fluxes is of major
importance for the accuracy of simulations of the near-surface climate
in Earth system models. The present study provides a quantitative
assessment of the accuracy and multidecadal changes of surface solar
radiation fluxes for model results from two phases of CMIP. The entire
archives of phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5) and its predecessor phase 3 (CMIP3)
are analyzed for present-day climate conditions. A relative model
ranking is provided, and its uncertainty is quantified using different
global observational records. It is shown that the choice of an
observational dataset can have a major influence on relative model
ranking between CMIP models. However the multidecadal variability of
surface solar radiation fluxes, also known as global "dimming" or
"brightening," is largely underestimated by the CMIP models.
