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Abstract:
Runoff outputs from 11 atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) participating
in the fifth phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project were used to evaluate the changes
in streamflow and agreement among AOGCMs at the end of 21st century. Under the highest
emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5), high flow is projected to
increase in northern high latitudes of Eurasia and North America, Asia, and eastern Africa, while
mean and low flows are both projected to decrease in Europe, Middle East, southwestern United
States, and Central America. Projected changes under RCP4.5 show similar spatial distribution
but with lower magnitude. The model spread of projected changes, however, is found to be large
under both scenarios. Bootstrapped Mann–Whitney–Wilcoxon U test revealed that projected
changes of streamflow regimes are statistically not significant in 8–32% (19–59%) of the world
under RCP8.5 (RCP4.5). The model agreement on projected increase or decrease in mean and
high flows is stronger under RCP8.5 than that under RCP4.5. On the other hand, the projected
changes in low flow are robust in both scenarios with strong model agreement. In ∼7% (4%) of
the world, high flow is projected to increase and low flow is projected to decrease, whereas in
∼29% (13%) all mean, high, and low flows are projected to increase under RCP8.5 (RCP4.5).
