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  Global response of terrestrial ecosystem structure and function to CO2 and climate change: results from six dynamic global vegetation models

Cramer, W., Bondeau, A., Woodward, F., Prentice, I., Betts, R., Brovkin, V., et al. (2001). Global response of terrestrial ecosystem structure and function to CO2 and climate change: results from six dynamic global vegetation models. Global Change Biology, 7, 357-373. doi:10.1046/j.1365-2486.2001.00383.x.

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 Creators:
Cramer, W1, Author
Bondeau, A1, Author
Woodward, FI1, Author
Prentice, IC1, Author
Betts, RA1, Author
Brovkin, Victor1, Author                 
Cox, PM1, Author
Fisher, V1, Author
Foley, JA1, Author
Friend, AD1, Author
Kucharik, C1, Author
Lomas, MR1, Author
Ramankutty, N1, Author
Sitch, S1, Author
Smith, B1, Author
White, A1, Author
Young-Molling, C1, Author
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1external, ou_persistent22              

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Free keywords: ATMOSPHERIC CO2; STOMATAL CONDUCTANCE; BIOSPHERE MODEL; CARBON-DIOXIDE; CANOPY REFLECTANCE; FOREST ECOSYSTEMS; PLANT MIGRATION; BOUNDARY-LAYER; PHOTOSYNTHESIS; TRANSPIRATIONdynamic global vegetation model; global carbon cycle;
 Abstract: The possible responses of ecosystem processes to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change are illustrated using six dynamic global vegetation models that explicitly represent the interactions of ecosystem carbon and water exchanges with vegetation dynamics. The models are driven by the IPCC IS92a scenario of rising CO2 (Wigley et al. 1991), and by climate changes resulting from effective CO2 concentrations corresponding to IS92a, simulated by the coupled ocean atmosphere model HadCM2-SUL. Simulations with changing CO2 alone show a widely distributed terrestrial carbon sink of 1.4-3.8 Pg C y(-1) during the 1990s, rising to 3.7-8.6 Pg C y(-1) a century later. Simulations including climate change show a reduced sink both today (0.6-3.0 Pg C y(-1)) and a century later (0.3-6.6 Pg C y(-1)) as a result of the impacts of climate change on NEP of tropical and southern hemisphere ecosystems. In all models, the rate of increase of NEP begins to level off around 2030 as a consequence of the 'diminishing return' of physiological CO2 effects at high CO2 concentrations. Four out of the six models show a further, climate-induced decline in NEP resulting from increased heterotrophic respiration and declining tropical NPP after 2050. Changes in vegetation structure influence the magnitude and spatial pattern of the carbon sink and, in combination with changing climate, also freshwater availability (runoff). It is shown that these changes, once set in motion, would continue to evolve for at least a century even if atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate could be instantaneously stabilized. The results should be considered illustrative in the sense that the choice of CO2 concentration scenario was arbitrary and only one climate model scenario was used. However, the results serve to indicate a range of possible biospheric responses to CO2 and climate change. They reveal major uncertainties about the response of NEP to climate change resulting, primarily, from differences in the way that modelled global NPP responds to a changing climate. The simulations illustrate, however, that the magnitude of possible biospheric influences on the carbon balance requires that this factor is taken into account for future scenarios of atmospheric CO2 and climate change.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2001-04
 Publication Status: Issued
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Degree: -

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Title: Global Change Biology
Source Genre: Journal
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 7 Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 357 - 373 Identifier: ISSN: 1354-1013