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Large-scale fires occur frequently across Indonesia, particularly in the southern region of Kalimantan and eastern Sumatra. They have considerable impacts on carbon
emissions, haze production, biodiversity, health, and economic activities.
In this 5 study, we demonstrate that severe fire and haze events in Indonesia can
generally be predicted months in advance using predictions of seasonal rainfall from
the ECMWF System 4 coupled ocean–atmosphere model. Based on analyses of upto-
date and long series observations on burnt area and rainfall, and tree cover, we
demonstrate that fire activity is negatively correlated with rainfall, and is positively
10 associated with deforestation in Indonesia. There is a contrast between the southern
region of Kalimantan (high fire activity, high tree cover loss and strong non-linear
correlation between observed rainfall and fire) and the central region of Kalimantan
(low fire activity, low tree cover loss and weak non-linear correlation between observed
rainfall and fire).
15 The ECMWF seasonal forecast provides skilled forecasts of burnt area with several
months lead time explaining at least 70% of the variance between rainfall and with
burnt area. Results are strongly influenced by El Niño years which show a consistent
positive bias. Overall, our findings point to a high potential for using a more physicalbased
method for predicting fires with several months lead time in the tropics, rather
20 than one based on indexes only. We argue that seasonal precipitation forecasts should be central to Indonesia’s evolving fire management policy.
