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Abstract:
Krueger (1998) argues that biases are simple to find because of the ease of disproving overly specific null hypotheses of normative behavior. We support his argument with examples of biases falling on both sides of the normative null hypothesis in behavioral decision making, and we show how a broader definition of normativity can lead to opposite conclusions about human rationality. To overcome the problems of asymmetric hypothesis testing - encouraging the discovery of biases and discouraging the specification of particular cognitive processes - we recommend two steps: submit precisely specified theories to symmetrical tests, and model sound reasoning based on problem-specific psychological assumptions.
