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Abstract:
The Mediterranean has been identified as one of the most responsive
regions to climate change. It has been conjectured that one of the
effects of a warmer climate could be to make the Mediterranean Sea prone
to the formation of hurricanes. Already in the present climate regime,
however, a few of the numerous low pressure systems that form in the
area develop a dynamical evolution similar to the one of tropical
cyclones. Even if their spatial extent is generally smaller and the life
cycle shorter compared to tropical cyclones, such storms produce severe
damage on the highly populated coastal areas surrounding the
Mediterranean Sea. This study, based on the analysis of individual
realistically simulated storms in homogeneous long-term and
high-resolution data from multiple climate change scenarios, shows that
the projected effect of climate change on Mediterranean tropical-like
cyclones is decreased frequency and a tendency toward a moderate
increase of intensity.
