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Abstract:
To assess gaps in understanding of Earth’s climate sensitivities a workshop was organised under
the auspices of the WCRP Grand Science Challenge on Clouds, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity
(Ringberg15). The workshop took place in March 2015 and gathered together over thirty
experts from around the world for one week. Attendees each gave short presentations and participated
in moderated discussions of specific questions related to understanding Earth’s climate
sensitivities. Most of the time was focused on understanding of the equilibrium climate sensitivity,
defined as the equilibrium near-surface warming associated with a doubling of atmospheric
carbon dioxide. The workshop produced nine recommendations, many of them focusing on specific
research avenues that could be exploited to advance understanding of climate sensitivity.
Many of these dealt, in one fashion or another, with the need to more sharply focus research
on identifying and testing story lines for a high (larger than 4K) or low (less than 2 K) equilibrium
climate sensitivity. Additionally, a subset of model intercomparison projects (CFMIP,
PMIP, PDRMIP, RFMIP and VolMIP) that have been proposed for inclusion within CMIP were
identified as being central to resolving important issues raised at the workshop; for this reason
modelling groups were strongly encouraged to participate in these projects. Finally the workshop
participants encouraged the WCRP to initiate and support an assessment process lead by
the Grand Science Challenge on Clouds, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity on the topic of
Earth’s Climate Sensitivities, culminating in a report that will be published in 2019, forty years
after the seminal report by Charney and co-authors.
