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  Paradoxical effects of coupling infectious livestock populations and imposing transport restrictions

Lamouroux, D., Nagler, J., Geisel, T., & Eule, S. (2014). Paradoxical effects of coupling infectious livestock populations and imposing transport restrictions. Proceedings B, 282(1802): 20142805. doi:10.1098/rspb.2014.2805.

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Item Permalink: http://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-0029-0ED7-9 Version Permalink: http://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-0029-0ED8-7
Genre: Journal Article

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 Creators:
Lamouroux, David1, Author              
Nagler, Jan1, Author              
Geisel, Theo1, Author              
Eule, Stephan1, Author              
Affiliations:
1Department of Nonlinear Dynamics, Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Max Planck Society, ou_2063286              

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 Abstract: Spatial heterogeneity of a host population of mobile agents has been shown to be a crucial determinant of many aspects of disease dynamics, ranging from the proliferation of diseases to their persistence and to vaccination strategies. In addition, the importance of regional and structural differences grows in our modern world. Little is known, though, about the consequences when traits of a disease vary regionally. In this paper, we study the effect of a spatially varying per capita infection rate on the behaviour of livestock diseases. We show that the prevalence of an infectious livestock disease in a community of animals can paradoxically decrease owing to transport connections to other communities in which the risk of infection is higher. We study the consequences for the design of livestock transportation restriction measures and establish exact criteria to discriminate those connections that increase the level of infection in the community from those that decrease it.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2014-12-24
 Publication Status: Published in print
 Pages: -
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 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Method: Peer
 Identifiers: eDoc: 698882
DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2014.2805
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Title: Proceedings B
  Alternative Title : Proc. R. Soc. B
Source Genre: Journal
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 282 (1802) Sequence Number: 20142805 Start / End Page: - Identifier: -