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  Base-rate Respect by Intuition: Approximating Rational Choices in Base-rate Tasks with Multiple Cues

Glöckner, A., & Dickert, S. (2008). Base-rate Respect by Intuition: Approximating Rational Choices in Base-rate Tasks with Multiple Cues.

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Item Permalink: http://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-0028-6E1E-D Version Permalink: http://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-0028-6E1F-B
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 Creators:
Glöckner, Andreas1, Author              
Dickert, Stephan1, Author              
Affiliations:
1Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods, Max Planck Society, ou_2173688              

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 Abstract: Although intuitive-automatic processes sometimes lead to systematic biases in judgment and choice, in many situations especially this kind of processes enables people to approximate rational choices. In complex base-rate tasks with repeated outcome feedback we observed choices which were in line with the Bayes’ solution in 86% of the cases and which were made within a relatively short time (i.e., 2.2 seconds). The results indicate reliance on extremely well-calibrated intuition. This view is supported by the findings that choice proportions are almost perfectly predicted by posterior probabilities (r = .93), and that error rates, response times and confidence ratings are highly correlated with inconsistency in the provided information. Our results support the hypothesis that parallel constraint satisfaction models may account for the processes underlying intuition and make the application of simple heuristics and deliberate strategies very unlikely. Taking an interdisciplinary perspective, implications for economic and psychological modeling are outlined.

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 Dates: 2008
 Publication Status: Published in print
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: Bonn : Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: -
 Identifiers: Other: 2008/49
 Degree: -

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