English
 
User Manual Privacy Policy Disclaimer Contact us
  Advanced SearchBrowse

Item

ITEM ACTIONSEXPORT
 
 
DownloadE-Mail
  The subtle origins of surface-warming hiatuses

Hedemann, C., Mauritsen, T., Jungclaus, J. H., & Marotzke, J. (2017). The subtle origins of surface-warming hiatuses. Nature Climate Change, 7, 336-339. doi:10.1038/nclimate3274.

Item is

Basic

show hide
Item Permalink: http://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-002D-0BBE-5 Version Permalink: http://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-002E-759B-A
Genre: Journal Article

Files

show Files
hide Files
:
hedemannetal.zip (Supplementary material), 14MB
Name:
hedemannetal.zip
Description:
Datenarchiv - Please contact publications@mpimet.mpg.de
Visibility:
Public
MIME-Type / Checksum:
application/zip / [MD5]
Technical Metadata:
Copyright Date:
-
Copyright Info:
-
License:
-

Locators

show

Creators

show
hide
 Creators:
Hedemann, Christopher1, 2, Author              
Mauritsen, Thorsten3, Author              
Jungclaus, Johann H.1, Author              
Marotzke, Jochem1, Author              
Affiliations:
1Director’s Research Group OES, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, ou_913553              
2IMPRS on Earth System Modelling, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, Bundesstraße 53, 20146 Hamburg, DE, ou_913547              
3Climate Dynamics, The Atmosphere in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, ou_913568              

Content

show
hide
Free keywords: -
 Abstract: During the first decade of the twenty-first century, the Earth’s surface warmed more slowly than climate models simulated1. This surface-warming hiatus is attributed by some studies to model errors in external forcing2, 3, 4, while others point to heat rearrangements in the ocean5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 caused by internal variability, the timing of which cannot be predicted by the models1. However, observational analyses disagree about which ocean region is responsible11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16. Here we show that the hiatus could also have been caused by internal variability in the top-of-atmosphere energy imbalance. Energy budgeting for the ocean surface layer over a 100-member historical ensemble reveals that hiatuses are caused by energy-flux deviations as small as 0.08 W m−2, which can originate at the top of the atmosphere, in the ocean, or both. Budgeting with existing observations cannot constrain the origin of the recent hiatus, because the uncertainty in observations dwarfs the small flux deviations that could cause a hiatus. The sensitivity of these flux deviations to the observational dataset and to energy budget choices helps explain why previous studies conflict, and suggests that the origin of the recent hiatus may never be identified.

Details

show
hide
Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2016-102017-032017-04-172017-04-17
 Publication Status: Published in print
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Method: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3274
 Degree: -

Event

show

Legal Case

show

Project information

show hide
Project name : -
Grant ID : 633211
Funding program : Horizon 2020 (H2020)
Funding organization : European Commission (EC)

Source 1

show
hide
Title: Nature Climate Change
Source Genre: Journal
 Creator(s):
Affiliations:
Publ. Info: London : Nature Publishing Group
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 7 Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 336 - 339 Identifier: Other: 1758-678x
CoNE: /journals/resource/1758-678x