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  What Is the Association between Absolute Child Poverty, Poor Governance, and Natural Disasters? A Global Comparison of Some of the Realities of Climate Change

Daoud, A., Halleröd, B., & Guha-Sapir, D. (2016). What Is the Association between Absolute Child Poverty, Poor Governance, and Natural Disasters? A Global Comparison of Some of the Realities of Climate Change. PLoS ONE, 11(4). doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0153296.

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Daoud, Adel1, 2, 3, Author           
Halleröd, Björn3, Author
Guha-Sapir, Debarati4, Author
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1Projekte von Gastwissenschaftlern und Postdoc-Stipendiaten, MPI for the Study of Societies, Max Planck Society, ou_1214554              
2Department of Sociology and Work Science, University of Gothenburg, Sweden, ou_persistent22              
3Department of Sociology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom, ou_persistent22              
4Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) and University of Louvain School of Public Health, Brussels, Belgium, ou_persistent22              

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 Abstract: The paper explores the degree to which exposure to natural disasters and poor governance (quality of governance) is associated with absolute child poverty in sixty-seven middle- and low-income countries. The data is representative for about 2.8 billion of the world´s population. Institutionalist tend to argue that many of society’s ills, including poverty, derive from fragile or inefficient institutions. However, our findings show that although increasing quality of government tends to be associated with less poverty, the negative effects of natural disasters on child poverty are independent of a country´s institutional efficiency. Increasing disaster victims (killed and affected) is associated with higher rates of child poverty. A child´s estimated odds ratio to be in a state of absolute poverty increases by about a factor of 5.7 [95% CI: 1.7 to 18.7] when the average yearly toll of disasters in the child´s country increases by one on a log-10 scale. Better governance correlates with less child poverty, but it does not modify the correlation between child poverty and natural disasters. The results are based on hierarchical regression models that partition the variance into three parts: child, household, and country. The models were cross-sectional and based on observational data from the Demographic Health Survey and the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey, which were collected at the beginning of the twenty-first millennium. The Sustainable Development Goals are a principle declaration to halt climate change, but they lack a clear plan on how the burden of this change should be shared by the global community. Based on our results, we suggest that the development agencies should take this into account and to articulate more equitable global policies to protect the most vulnerable, specifically children.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2015-05-212016-03-282016-04-14
 Publication Status: Published online
 Pages: 20
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 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0153296
Other: e0153296
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Title: PLoS ONE
Source Genre: Journal
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 11 (4) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: - Identifier: ISSN: 1932-6203