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  Relative role of pre-monsoon conditions and intraseasonal oscillations in determining early-vs-late indian monsoon intensity in a GCM

Ghosh, R., Chakraborty, A., & Nanjundiah, R. S. (2018). Relative role of pre-monsoon conditions and intraseasonal oscillations in determining early-vs-late indian monsoon intensity in a GCM. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 131, 319-333. doi:10.1007/s00704-016-1970-z.

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10.1007%2Fs00704-016-1970-z.pdf (Publisher version), 4MB
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Ghosh, Rohit1, 2, Author              
Chakraborty, Arindam, Author
Nanjundiah, Ravi S., Author
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1Decadal Climate Predictions - MiKlip, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, Bundesstraße 53, 20146 Hamburg, DE, ou_1479671              
2IMPRS on Earth System Modelling, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, Bundesstraße 53, 20146 Hamburg, DE, ou_913547              

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 Abstract: The aim of this paper is to identify relative roles of different land-atmospheric conditions, apart from sea surface temperature (SST), in determining early vs. late summer monsoon intensity over India in a high resolution general circulation model (GCM). We find that in its early phase (June--July; JJ), pre-monsoon land-atmospheric processes play major role to modulate the precipitation over Indian region. These effects of pre-monsoon conditions decrease substantially during its later phase (August--September; AS) for which the interannual variation is mainly governed by the low frequency northward propagating intraseasonal oscillations. This intraseasonal variability which is related to mean vertical wind shear has a significant role during the early phase of monsoon as well. Further, using multiple linear regression, we show that interannual variation of early and late monsoon rainfall over India is best explained when all these land-atmospheric parameters are taken together. Our study delineates the relative role of different processes affecting early versus later summer monsoon rainfall over India that can be used for determining its subseasonal predictability.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2017-102018-01
 Publication Status: Published in print
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 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1007/s00704-016-1970-z
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Title: Theoretical and Applied Climatology
Source Genre: Journal
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 131 Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 319 - 333 Identifier: ISSN: 1434-4483