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  Arctic stratosphere dynamical response to global warming

Karpechko, A. Y., & Manzini, E. (2017). Arctic stratosphere dynamical response to global warming. Journal of Climate, 30, 7071-7086. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0781.1.

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 Creators:
Karpechko, Alexey Yu1, Author
Manzini, Elisa2, Author                 
Affiliations:
1external, ou_persistent22              
2Minerva Research Group Stratosphere and Climate, The Atmosphere in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, ou_2301693              

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Free keywords: BREWER-DOBSON CIRCULATION; SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE; CLIMATE-CHANGE; GREENHOUSE GASES; TOTAL OZONE; VARIABILITY; TRENDS; PROJECTIONS; IMPACT
 Abstract: The role of stationary planetary waves in the dynamical response of the Arctic winter stratosphere circulation to global warming is investigated here by analyzing simulations performed with atmosphere-only models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) driven by prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Climate models often simulate dynamical warming of the Arctic stratosphere as a response to global warming in association with a strengthening of the deep branch of the Brewer-Dobson circulation; however, until now, no satisfactory mechanism for such a response has been suggested. This study focuses on December-February (DJF) because this is the period when the troposphere and stratosphere are strongly coupled. When forced by increased SSTs, all the models analyzed here simulate Arctic stratosphere dynamical warming, mostly due to increased upward propagation of quasi-stationary wavenumber 1, as diagnosed by the meridional eddy heat flux. Further, it is shown that the stratospheric warming and increased wave flux to the stratosphere are related to the strengthening of the zonal winds in subtropics and midlatitudes near the tropopause. Evidence presented in this paper corroborate climate model simulations of future stratospheric changes and suggest a dynamical warming of the Arctic polar vortex as the most likely response to global warming.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2017-062017-082017-09
 Publication Status: Issued
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: ISI: 000407276600026
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0781.1
 Degree: -

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Title: Journal of Climate
  Other : J. Clim.
Source Genre: Journal
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Publ. Info: Boston, MA : American Meteorological Society
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 30 Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 7071 - 7086 Identifier: ISSN: 0894-8755
CoNE: https://pure.mpg.de/cone/journals/resource/954925559525