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  Improved seasonal prediction of European summer temperatures with new five-layer soil-hydrology scheme

Bunzel, F., Müller, W. A., Dobrynin, M., Fröhlich, K., Hagemann, S., Pohlmann, H., et al. (2018). Improved seasonal prediction of European summer temperatures with new five-layer soil-hydrology scheme. Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 346-353. doi:10.1002/2017GL076204.

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Item Permalink: https://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-002E-95B6-E Version Permalink: https://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000B-5AE3-0
Genre: Journal Article

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 Creators:
Bunzel, Felix1, Author           
Müller, Wolfgang A.2, Author           
Dobrynin, Mikhail3, Author           
Fröhlich, Kristina, Author
Hagemann, Stefan4, Author           
Pohlmann, Holger2, Author           
Stacke, Tobias4, Author                 
Baehr, Johanna3, 5, Author           
Affiliations:
1Max Planck Research Group The Sea Ice in the Earth System, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, Bundesstraße 53, 20146 Hamburg, DE, ou_913554              
2Decadal Climate Predictions - MiKlip, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, ou_1479671              
3CRG Climate System Data Assimilation, Research Area A: Climate Dynamics and Variability, The CliSAP Cluster of Excellence, External Organizations, ou_2025289              
4Terrestrial Hydrology, The Land in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, ou_913560              
5A 1 - Climate Variability and Predictability, Research Area A: Climate Dynamics and Variability, The CliSAP Cluster of Excellence, External Organizations, ou_1863478              

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Free keywords: Coupled models of the climate system, Soil moisture, Prediction, Data assimilation, Land/atmosphere interactions, seasonal prediction, summer temperatures, soil moisture, blocking frequency, evaporation, transpiration
 Abstract: We evaluate the impact of a new 5-layer soil-hydrology scheme on seasonal hindcast skill of 2-meter temperatures over Europe obtained with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). Assimilation experiments from 1981 to 2010 and 10-member seasonal hindcasts initialized on 1 May each year are performed with MPI-ESM in two soil configurations, one using a bucket scheme and one a new 5-layer soil-hydrology scheme. We find the seasonal hindcast skill for European summer temperatures to improve with the 5-layer scheme compared to the bucket scheme, and investigate possible causes for these improvements. First, improved indirect soil moisture assimilation allows for enhanced soil moisture-temperature feedbacks in the hindcasts. Additionally, this leads to improved prediction of anomalies in the 500 hPa geopotential height surface, reflecting more realistic atmospheric circulation patterns over Europe.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2017-122018-01-112018-01-19
 Publication Status: Issued
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1002/2017GL076204
 Degree: -

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Project name : Seasonal-to-decadal Prediction for the Advancement of European Climate Services
Grant ID : 308378 ENV.2012.6.1-1
Funding program : Funding Programme 7 (FP7)
Funding organization : European Commission (EC)

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Title: Geophysical Research Letters
Source Genre: Journal
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 45 Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 346 - 353 Identifier: ISSN: 1944-8007