English
 
Help Privacy Policy Disclaimer
  Advanced SearchBrowse

Item

ITEM ACTIONSEXPORT
  Identification of Tropical-Extratropical Interactions and Extreme Precipitation Events in the Middle East Based On Potential Vorticity and Moisture Transport

DeVries, A. J., Ouwersloot, H. G., Feldstein, S. B., Riemer, M., El Kenawy, A. M., McCabe, M. F., et al. (2018). Identification of Tropical-Extratropical Interactions and Extreme Precipitation Events in the Middle East Based On Potential Vorticity and Moisture Transport. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 123(2), 861-881. doi:10.1002/2017JD027587.

Item is

Basic

show hide
Genre: Journal Article

Files

show Files

Locators

show

Creators

show
hide
 Creators:
DeVries, A. J.1, Author              
Ouwersloot, H. G.1, Author              
Feldstein, S. B.2, Author
Riemer, M.2, Author
El Kenawy, A. M.2, Author
McCabe, M. F.2, Author
Lelieveld, J.1, Author              
Affiliations:
1Atmospheric Chemistry, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Max Planck Society, ou_1826285              
2external, ou_persistent22              

Content

show
hide
Free keywords: -
 Abstract: Extreme precipitation events in the otherwise arid Middle East can cause flooding with dramatic socioeconomic impacts. Most of these events are associated with tropical-extratropical interactions, whereby a stratospheric potential vorticity (PV) intrusion reaches deep into the subtropics and forces an incursion of high poleward vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT) into the Middle East. This study presents an object-based identification method for extreme precipitation events based on the combination of these two larger-scale meteorological features. The general motivation for this approach is that precipitation is often poorly simulated in relatively coarse weather and climate models, whereas the synoptic-scale circulation is much better represented. The algorithm is applied to ERA-Interim reanalysis data (1979–2015) and detects 90% (83%) of the 99th (97.5th) percentile of extreme precipitation days in the region of interest. Our results show that stratospheric PV intrusions and IVT structures are intimately connected to extreme precipitation intensity and seasonality. The farther south a stratospheric PV intrusion reaches, the larger the IVT magnitude, and the longer the duration of their combined occurrence, the more extreme the precipitation. Our algorithm detects a large fraction of the climatological rainfall amounts (40–70%), heavy precipitation days (50–80%), and the top 10 extreme precipitation days (60–90%) at many sites in southern Israel and the northern and western parts of Saudi Arabia. This identification method provides a new tool for future work to disentangle teleconnections, assess medium-range predictability, and improve understanding of climatic changes of extreme precipitation in the Middle East and elsewhere.

Details

show
hide
Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2018
 Publication Status: Published in print
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: -
 Identifiers: ISI: 000425520200015
DOI: 10.1002/2017JD027587
 Degree: -

Event

show

Legal Case

show

Project information

show

Source 1

show
hide
Title: Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres
Source Genre: Journal
 Creator(s):
Affiliations:
Publ. Info: Washington, D.C. : American Geophysical Union
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 123 (2) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 861 - 881 Identifier: ISSN: 0148-0227
CoNE: https://pure.mpg.de/cone/journals/resource/991042728714264_1