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  Climate change and North Sea storm surge extremes: an ensemble study of storm surge extremes expected in a changed climate projected by four different regional climate models

Woth, K., Weisse, R., & von Storch, H. (2006). Climate change and North Sea storm surge extremes: an ensemble study of storm surge extremes expected in a changed climate projected by four different regional climate models. Ocean Dynamics, 56, 3-15. doi:10.1007/s10236-005-0024-3.

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Item Permalink: https://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0001-5B8F-9 Version Permalink: https://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0001-5B9D-9
Genre: Journal Article

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 Creators:
Woth, Katja1, 2, Author
Weisse, Ralf, Author
von Storch, Hans, Author
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2IMPRS on Earth System Modelling, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, Bundesstraße 53, 20146 Hamburg, DE, ou_913547              

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 Abstract: The coastal zones are facing the prospect of changing storm surge statistics due to anthropogenic climate change. In the present study, we examine these prospects for the North Sea based on numerical modelling. The main tool is the barotropic tide-surge model TRIMGEO (Tidal Residual and Intertidal Mudflat Model) to derive storm surge climate and extremes from atmospheric conditions. The analysis is carried out by using an ensemble of four 30-year atmospheric regional simulations under present-day and possible future-enhanced greenhouse gas conditions. The atmospheric regional simulations were prepared within the EU project PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects). The research strategy of PRUDENCE is to compare simulations of different regional models driven by the same global control and climate change simulations. These global conditions, representative for 1961--1990 and 2071--2100 were prepared by the Hadley Center based on the IPCC A2 SRES scenario. The results suggest that under future climatic conditions, storm surge extremes may increase along the North Sea coast towards the end of this century. Based on a comparison between the results of the different ensemble members as well as on the variability estimated from a high-resolution storm surge reconstruction of the recent decades it is found that this increase is significantly different from zero at the 95% confidence level for most of the North Sea coast. An exception represents the East coast of the UK which is not affected by this increase of storm surge extremes.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2006-05
 Publication Status: Issued
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1007/s10236-005-0024-3
BibTex Citekey: Woth2006
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Title: Ocean Dynamics
Source Genre: Journal
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 56 Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 3 - 15 Identifier: ISSN: 1616-7228