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  Emergent constraints on Earth's transient and equilibrium response to doubled CO2 by post-1970s global warming

Jiménez de la Cuesta, D., & Mauritsen, T. (2019). Emergent constraints on Earth's transient and equilibrium response to doubled CO2 by post-1970s global warming. Nature Geoscience, 12, 902-905. doi:10.1038/s41561-019-0463-y.

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Item Permalink: https://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0004-D1EC-6 Version Permalink: https://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000D-3A96-9
Genre: Journal Article

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 Creators:
Jiménez de la Cuesta, Diego1, 2, Author           
Mauritsen, Thorsten, Author           
Affiliations:
1IMPRS on Earth System Modelling, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, Bundesstraße 53, 20146 Hamburg, DE, ou_913547              
2Global Circulation and Climate, The Atmosphere in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, Bundesstraße 53, 20146 Hamburg, DE, ou_3001850              

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 Abstract: Future global warming is determined by both greenhouse gas emission pathways and Earth’s transient and equilibrium climate response to doubled atmospheric CO2. Energy-balance inference from the instrumental record typically yields central estimates for the transient response of around 1.3 K and the equilibrium response of 1.5–2.0 K, which is at the lower end of those from contemporary climate models. Uncertainty arises primarily from poorly known aerosol-induced cooling since the early industrialization era and a temporary cooling induced by evolving sea surface temperature patterns. Here we present an emergent constraint on post-1970s warming, taking advantage of the weakly varying aerosol cooling during this period. We derive a relationship between the transient response and the post-1970s warming in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. We thereby constrain, with the observations, the transient response to 1.67 K (1.17–2.16 K, 5–95th percentiles). This is a 20% increase relative to energy-balance inference stemming from previously neglected upper-ocean energy storage. For the equilibrium climate sensitivity we obtain a best estimate of 2.83 K (1.72–4.12 K) contingent on the temporary pattern effects exhibited by climate models. If the real world’s surface temperature pattern effects are substantially stronger, then the upper-bound equilibrium sensitivity may be higher than found here.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2018-112019-10-072019-10-072019-11
 Publication Status: Issued
 Pages: -
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 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1038/s41561-019-0463-y
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Grant ID : 820829
Funding program : Horizon 2020 (H2020)
Funding organization : European Commission (EC)
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Grant ID : 770765
Funding program : -
Funding organization : European Research Council

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Title: Nature Geoscience
Source Genre: Journal
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Publ. Info: London : Nature Publishing Group
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 12 Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 902 - 905 Identifier: ISSN: 1752-0894
CoNE: https://pure.mpg.de/cone/journals/resource/1752-0894