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  Early-warning signals of individual tree mortality based on annual radial growth

Cailleret, M., Dakos, V., Jansen, S., Robert, E. M., Aakala, T., Amoroso, M. M., et al. (2019). Early-warning signals of individual tree mortality based on annual radial growth. Frontiers in Plant Science, 9: 1964. doi:10.3389/fpls.2018.01964.

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Cailleret, Maxime, Autor
Dakos, Vasilis, Autor
Jansen, Steven, Autor
Robert, Elisabeth M., Autor
Aakala, Tuomas, Autor
Amoroso, Mariano M., Autor
Antos, Joe A., Autor
Bigler, Christof, Autor
Bugmann, Harald, Autor
Caccianiga, Marco, Autor
Camarero, Jesús Julio, Autor
Cherubini, Paolo, Autor
Coyea, Marie R., Autor
Cufar, Katarina, Autor
Das, Adrian J., Autor
Davi, Hendrik, Autor
Gea-Izquierdo, Guillermo, Autor
Gillner, Sten, Autor
Haavik, Laurel J., Autor
Hartmann, Henrik1, Autor           
Heres, Ana-Maria, AutorHultine, Kevin R., AutorJanda, Pavel, AutorKane, Jeffrey M., AutorKharuk, Viachelsav I., AutorKitzberger, thomas, AutorKlein, Tamir, AutorLevanič, Tom, AutorLinares, Juan C., AutorLombardi, Fabio, AutorMäkinen, Harri, AutorMészáros, Ilona, AutorMetsaranta, Juha M., AutorOberhuber, Walter, AutorPapadopoulos, Andreas, AutorPetritan, Any M., AutorRohner, Brigitte, AutorSangüesa-Barreda, Gabriel, AutorSmith, Jeremy M., AutorStan, Amanda, AutorStojanovic, Dejan B., AutorSuarez, Maria L., AutorSvoboda, Miroslav, AutorTrotsiuk, Volodymyr, AutorVillalba, Ricardo, AutorWestwood, Alana, AutorWyckoff, Peter, AutorMartínez-Vilalta, Jordi, Autor mehr..
Affiliations:
1Tree Mortality Mechanisms, Dr. H. Hartmann, Department Biogeochemical Processes, Prof. S. E. Trumbore, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Max Planck Society, ou_1497781              

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 Zusammenfassung: Tree mortality is a key driver of forest dynamics and its occurrence is projected to increase in the future due to climate change. Despite recent advances in our understanding of the physiological mechanisms leading to death, we still lack robust indicators of mortality risk that could be applied at the individual tree scale. Here, we build on a previous contribution exploring the differences in growth level between trees that died and survived a given mortality event to assess whether changes in temporal autocorrelation, variance, and synchrony in time-series of annual radial growth data can be used as early warning signals of mortality risk. Taking advantage of a unique global ring-width database of 3065 dead trees and 4389 living trees growing together at 198 sites (belonging to 36 gymnosperm and angiosperm species), we analyzed temporal changes in autocorrelation, variance, and synchrony before tree death (diachronic analysis), and also compared these metrics between trees that died and trees that survived a given mortality event (synchronic analysis). Changes in autocorrelation were a poor indicator of mortality risk. However, we found a gradual increase in inter-annual growth variability and a decrease in growth synchrony in the last ~20 years before mortality of gymnosperms, irrespective of the cause of mortality. These changes could be associated with drought-induced alterations in carbon economy and allocation patterns. In angiosperms, we did not find any consistent changes in any metric. Such lack of any signal might be explained by the relatively high capacity of angiosperms to recover after a stress-induced growth decline. Our analysis provides a robust method for estimating early-warning signals of tree mortality based on annual growth data. In addition to the frequently reported decrease in growth rates, an increase in inter-annual growth variability and a decrease in growth synchrony may be powerful predictors of gymnosperm mortality risk, but not necessarily so for angiosperms.

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 Datum: 2018-122019-01-082019-01
 Publikationsstatus: Erschienen
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 Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
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 Identifikatoren: Anderer: BGC2970
DOI: 10.3389/fpls.2018.01964
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Titel: Frontiers in Plant Science
  Kurztitel : Front. Plant Sci.
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift
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Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: Lausanne : Frontiers Media
Seiten: - Band / Heft: 9 Artikelnummer: 1964 Start- / Endseite: - Identifikator: ISSN: 1664-462X
CoNE: https://pure.mpg.de/cone/journals/resource/1664462X