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  Decadal prediction: Can it be skillful?

Meehl, G. A., Goddard, L., Murphy, J., Stouffer, R. J., Boer, G., Danabasoglu, G., et al. (2009). Decadal prediction: Can it be skillful? Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 90, 1467-1485. doi:10.1175/2009BAMS2778.1.

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 Creators:
Meehl, Gerald A.1, Author
Goddard, Lisa1, Author
Murphy, James1, Author
Stouffer, Ronald J.1, Author
Boer, George1, Author
Danabasoglu, Gokhan1, Author
Dixon, Keith1, Author
Giorgetta, Marco A.2, Author                 
Greene, Arthur M.1, Author
Hawkins, Ed1, Author
Hegerl, Gabriele1, Author
Karoly, David1, Author
Keenlyside, Noel, Author           
Kimoto, Masahide1, Author
Kirtman, Ben1, Author
Navarra, Antonio1, Author
Pulwarty, Roger1, Author
Smith, Doug1, Author
Stammer, Detlef3, 4, Author           
Stockdale, Timothy1, Author
Affiliations:
1external, ou_persistent22              
2Climate Modelling, The Atmosphere in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, ou_913569              
3Max Planck Fellows, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, ou_913548              
4A 1 - Climate Variability and Predictability, Research Area A: Climate Dynamics and Variability, The CliSAP Cluster of Excellence, External Organizations, ou_1863478              

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Free keywords: GENERAL-CIRCULATION MODEL; SURFACE-TEMPERATURE TRENDS; SOLAR-CYCLE VARIABILITY; GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL; SEA-LEVEL RISE; NORTH-ATLANTIC; THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION; MULTIMODEL-ENSEMBLE; MULTIDECADAL VARIABILITY; INTERDECADAL VARIATIONS
 Abstract: A new field of study, "decadal prediction," is emerging in climate science. Decadal prediction lies between seasonal/interannual forecasting and longer-term climate change projections, and focuses on time-evolving regional climate conditions over the next 10-30 yr. Numerous assessments of climate information user needs have identified this time scale as being important to infrastructure planners, water resource managers, and many others. It is central to the information portfolio required to adapt effectively to and through climatic changes. At least three factors influence time-evolving regional climate at the decadal time scale: 1) climate change commitment (further warming as the coupled climate system comes into adjustment with increases of greenhouse gases that have already occurred), 2) external forcing, particularly from future increases of greenhouse gases and recovery of the ozone hole, and 3) internally generated variability. Some decadal prediction skill has been demonstrated to arise from the first two of these factors, and there is evidence that initialized coupled climate models can capture mechanisms of internally generated decadal climate variations, thus increasing predictive skill globally and particularly regionally. Several methods have been proposed for initializing global coupled climate models for decadal predictions, all of which involve global time-evolving threedimensional ocean data, including temperature and salinity. An experimental framework to address decadal predictability/prediction is described in this paper and has been incorporated into the coordinated Coupled Model Intercomparison Model, phase 5 (CMIP5) experiments, some of which will be assessed for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). These experiments will likely guide work in this emerging field over the next 5 yr.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2009-10
 Publication Status: Issued
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: ISI: 000271653500004
DOI: 10.1175/2009BAMS2778.1
 Degree: -

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Title: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Source Genre: Journal
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Publ. Info: American Meteorological Society
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 90 Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 1467 - 1485 Identifier: ISSN: 0003-0007
CoNE: https://pure.mpg.de/cone/journals/resource/954925377920