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  Aggressive or moderate drug therapy for infectious diseases? Trade-offs between different treatment goals at the individual and population levels

Scire, J., Hozé, N., & Uecker, H. (2018). Aggressive or moderate drug therapy for infectious diseases? Trade-offs between different treatment goals at the individual and population levels. bioRxiv. doi:10.1101/307223.

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Item Permalink: http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0003-7201-B Version Permalink: http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0003-7202-A
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Scire, Jérémie, Author
Hozé, Nathanaël, Author
Uecker, Hildegard1, Author              
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1Research Group Stochastic Evolutionary Dynamics, Department Evolutionary Theory, Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Biology, Max Planck Society, ou_2640692              

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 Abstract: Antimicrobial resistance is one of the major public health threats of the 21st century. There is a pressing need to adopt more efficient treatment strategies in order to prevent the emergence and spread of resistant strains. The common approach is to treat patients with high drug doses, both to clear the infection quickly and to reduce the risk of de novo resistance. Recently, several studies have argued that, at least in some cases, low-dose treatments could be more suitable to reduce the within-host emergence of antimicrobial resistance. However, the choice of a drug dose may have consequences at the population level, which has received little attention so far.Here, we study the influence of the drug dose on resistance and disease management at the host and population levels. We develop a nested two-strain model and unravel trade-offs in treatment benefits between an individual and the community. We use several measures to evaluate the benefits of any dose choice. Two measures focus on the emergence of resistance, at the host level and at the population level. The other two focus on the overall treatment success: the outbreak probability and the disease burden. We find that different measures can suggest different dosing strategies. In particular, we identify situations where low doses minimize the risk of emergence of resistance at the individual level, while high or intermediate doses prove most beneficial to improve the treatment efficiency or even to reduce the risk of resistance in the population.Author summary The obvious goals of antimicrobial drug therapy are rapid patient recovery and low disease prevalence in the population. However, achieving these goals is complicated by the rapid evolution and spread of antimicrobial resistance. A sustainable treatment strategy needs to account for the risk of resistance and keep it in check. One parameter of treatment is the drug dosage, which can vary within certain limits. It has been proposed that lower doses may, in some cases, be more suitable than higher doses to reduce the risk of resistance evolution in any one patient. However, if lower doses prolong the period of infectiousness, such a strategy has consequences for the pathogen dynamics of both strains at the population level. Here, we set up a nested model of within-host and between-host dynamics for an acute self-limiting infection. We explore the consequences of drug dosing on several measures of treatment success: the risk of resistance at the individual and population levels and the outbreak probability and the disease burden of an epidemic. Our analysis shows that trade-offs may exist between optimal treatments under these various criteria. The criterion given most weight in the decision process ultimately depends on the disease and population under consideration.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2018-04-242018-01
 Publication Status: Published in print
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 Rev. Method: No review
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1101/307223
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Title: bioRxiv
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