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  South Asian summer monsoon projections constrained by the Intedacadal Pacific Oscillation

Huang, X., Zhou, T., Dai, A., Li, H., Li, C., Chen, X., et al. (2020). South Asian summer monsoon projections constrained by the Intedacadal Pacific Oscillation. Science Advances, 6: eaay6546. doi:10.1126/sciadv.aay6546.

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 Creators:
Huang, Xin, Author
Zhou, Tianjun, Author
Dai, Aiguo, Author
Li, Hongmei1, Author                 
Li, Chao2, Author                 
Chen, Xiaolong, Author
Lu, Jingwen, Author
von Storch, Jin-Song3, Author                 
Affiliations:
1Ocean Biogeochemistry, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, ou_913556              
2Director’s Research Group OES, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, ou_913553              
3Ocean Statistics, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, ou_913558              

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 Abstract: A reliable projection of future South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) benefits a large population in Asia. Using a 100-member ensemble of simulations by the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) and a 50-member ensemble of simulations by the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2), we find that internal variability can overshadow the forced SASM rainfall trend, leading to large projection uncertainties for the next 15 to 30 years. We further identify that the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) is, in part, responsible for the uncertainties. Removing the IPO-related rainfall variations reduces the uncertainties in the near-term projection of the SASM rainfall by 13 to 15% and 26 to 30% in the MPI-ESM and CanESM2 ensembles, respectively. Our results demonstrate that the uncertainties in near-term projections of the SASM rainfall can be reduced by improving prediction of near-future IPO and other internal modes of climate variability

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2019-092020-02-262020-02-282020-03-18
 Publication Status: Issued
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aay6546
 Degree: -

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Title: Science Advances
  Other : Sci. Adv.
Source Genre: Journal
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Publ. Info: Washington : AAAS
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 6 Sequence Number: eaay6546 Start / End Page: - Identifier: ISSN: 2375-2548
CoNE: https://pure.mpg.de/cone/journals/resource/2375-2548