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  Hotspots of extreme heat under global warming

Suarez-Gutierrez, L., Müller, W. A., Li, C., & Marotzke, J. (2020). Hotspots of extreme heat under global warming. Climate Dynamics, 55, 429-447. doi:10.1007/s00382-020-05263-w.

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Item Permalink: http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0006-3F51-9 Version Permalink: http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0006-DD02-F
Genre: Journal Article

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 Creators:
Suarez-Gutierrez, Laura1, Author              
Müller, Wolfgang A.2, Author              
Li, Chao1, Author              
Marotzke, Jochem1, Author              
Affiliations:
1Director’s Research Group OES, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, ou_913553              
2Decadal Climate Predictions - MiKlip, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, ou_1479671              

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 Abstract: We evaluate how hotspots of different types of extreme summertime heat change under global warming increase of up to 4∘C; and which level of global warming allows us to avert the risk of these hotspots considering the irreducible range of possibilities defined by well-sampled internal variability. We use large samples of low-probability extremes simulated by the 100-member Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble (MPI-GE) for five metrics of extreme heat: maximum absolute temperatures, return periods of extreme temperatures, maximum temperature variability, sustained tropical nights, and wet bulb temperatures. At 2∘C of warming, MPI-GE projects maximum summer temperatures below 50∘C over most of the world. Beyond 2∘C, this threshold is overshot in all continents, with the maximum projected temperatures in hotspots over the Arabic Peninsula. Extreme 1-in-100-years pre-industrial temperatures occur every 10–25 years already at 1.5∘C of warming. At 4∘C, these 1-in-100-years extremes are projected to occur every 1 to 2 years over most of the world. The range of maximum temperature variability increases by 10–50% at 2∘C of warming, and by 50–100% at 4∘C. Beyond 2∘C, heat stress is aggravated substantially over non-adapted areas by hot and humid conditions that occur rarely in a pre-industrial climate; while extreme pre-industrial tropical night conditions become common-pace already at 1.5∘C. At 4∘C of warming, tropical night hotspots spread polewards globally, and are sustained during more than 99% of all summer months in the tropics; whilst extreme monthly mean wet bulb temperatures beyond 26∘C spread both over large tropical as well as mid-latitude regions.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2019-122020-04-232020-05-272020-08
 Publication Status: Published in print
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 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05263-w
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Title: Climate Dynamics
  Other : Clim. Dyn.
Source Genre: Journal
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Publ. Info: Heidelberg : Springer-International
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 55 Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 429 - 447 Identifier: ISSN: 0930-7575
CoNE: https://pure.mpg.de/cone/journals/resource/954925568800