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  The anticipation of events in time

Grabenhorst, M., Michalareas, G., Maloney, L. T., & Poeppel, D. (2019). The anticipation of events in time. Nature Communications, 10: 5802. doi:10.1038/s41467-019-13849-0.

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This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder.

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 Creators:
Grabenhorst, Matthias1, Author           
Michalareas, Giorgos1, Author           
Maloney, Laurence T.2, Author
Poeppel, David1, 2, Author           
Affiliations:
1Department of Neuroscience, Max Planck Institute for Empirical Aesthetics, Max Planck Society, ou_2421697              
2Department of Psychology, Center for Neural Science, 6 Washington Place, New York, NY, 10003, USA, ou_persistent22              

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Free keywords: Neuroscience; Sensory processing
 Abstract: Humans anticipate events signaled by sensory cues. It is commonly assumed that two uncertainty parameters modulate the brain's capacity to predict: the hazard rate (HR) of event probability and the uncertainty in time estimation which increases with elapsed time. We investigate both assumptions by presenting event probability density functions (PDFs) in each of three sensory modalities. We show that perceptual systems use the reciprocal PDF and not the HR to model event probability density. We also demonstrate that temporal uncertainty does not necessarily grow with elapsed time but can also diminish, depending on the event PDF. Previous research identified neuronal activity related to event probability in multiple levels of the cortical hierarchy (sensory (V4), association (LIP), motor and other areas) proposing the HR as an elementary neuronal computation. Our results—consistent across vision, audition, and somatosensation—suggest that the neurobiological implementation of event anticipation is based on a different, simpler and more stable computation than HR: the reciprocal PDF of events in time.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2019-05-032019-11-252019-12-20
 Publication Status: Published online
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-13849-0
 Degree: -

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Title: Nature Communications
  Abbreviation : Nat. Commun.
Source Genre: Journal
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Publ. Info: London : Nature Publishing Group
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 10 Sequence Number: 5802 Start / End Page: - Identifier: ISSN: 2041-1723
CoNE: https://pure.mpg.de/cone/journals/resource/2041-1723