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Abstract:
The global temperature targets of limiting surface warming to below 2.0°C or even to 1.5°C have been widely accepted
through the Paris Agreement. However, limiting surface warming has previously been proven insufficient
to control sea level rise (SLR). Here, we explore a sea level target that is closer to coastal planning and associated
adaptation measures than a temperature target. We find that a sea level target provides an optimal temperature
overshoot profile through a physical constraint of SLR. The allowable temperature overshoot leads to lower
mitigation costs and more effective long-term sea level stabilization compared to a temperature target leading
to the same SLR by 2200. With the same mitigation cost as the temperature target, a SLR target could bring surface
warming back to the targeted temperatures within this century, lead to a reduction of surface warming of the next
century, and reduce and slow down SLR in the centuries thereafter.
