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  Predictable variations of the carbon sinks and atmospheric CO2 growth in a multi-model framework

Ilyina, T., Li, H., Spring, A., Müller, W. A., Bopp, L., Chikamoto, M. O., et al. (2021). Predictable variations of the carbon sinks and atmospheric CO2 growth in a multi-model framework. Geophysical Research Letters, 48: e2020GL090695. doi:10.1029/2020GL090695.

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Item Permalink: https://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0007-349E-D Version Permalink: https://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000C-88DA-5
Genre: Journal Article

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 Creators:
Ilyina, Tatiana1, Author                 
Li, Hongmei1, Author                 
Spring, Aaron1, 2, Author                 
Müller, Wolfgang A.3, Author           
Bopp, Laurent, Author
Chikamoto, Megumi O., Author
Danabasoglu, Gokhan, Author
Dobrynin, Mikhail, Author
Dunne, John P. Patrick, Author
Fransner, Filippa, Author
Friedlingstein, Pierre, Author
Lee, Woo-Sung, Author
Lovenduski, Nicole Suzanne, Author
Merryfield, William J, Author
Mignot, Juliette, Author
Park, Jong-Yeon, Author
Séférian, Roland, Author
Sospedra-Alfonso, Reinel, Author
Watanabe, Michio, Author
Yeager, Stephen, Author
Affiliations:
1Ocean Biogeochemistry, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, ou_913556              
2IMPRS on Earth System Modelling, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, Bundesstraße 53, 20146 Hamburg, DE, ou_913547              
3Decadal Climate Predictions - MiKlip, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, ou_1479671              

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 Abstract: Inter-annual to decadal variability in the strength of the land and ocean carbon sinks impede accurate predictions of year-to-year atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) growth rate. Such information is crucial to verify the effectiveness of fossil fuel emissions reduction measures. Using a multi-model framework comprising prediction systems based on Earth system models, we find a predictive skill for the global ocean carbon sink of up to 6 years. Longer regional predictability horizons and robust spatial patterns are found across single models. On land, a predictive skill of up to 2 years is primarily maintained in the tropics and extra-tropics enabled by the initialization of the physical climate variables towards observations. We further show that anomalies of atmospheric CO2 growth rate inferred from natural variations of the land and ocean carbon sinks are predictable at lead time of 2 years and the skill is limited by the land carbon sink predictability horizon

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2020-092020-12-282021-03-282021-03-28
 Publication Status: Issued
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1029/2020GL090695
 Degree: -

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Title: Geophysical Research Letters
  Abbreviation : GRL
Source Genre: Journal
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Publ. Info: Washington, D.C. : American Geophysical Union / Wiley
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 48 Sequence Number: e2020GL090695 Start / End Page: - Identifier: ISSN: 0094-8276
CoNE: https://pure.mpg.de/cone/journals/resource/954925465217