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  Simulated tropical precipitation assessed across three major phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)

Fiedler, S., Crueger, T., D'Agostino, R., Peters, K., Becker, T., Leutwyler, D., et al. (2020). Simulated tropical precipitation assessed across three major phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Monthly Weather Review, 148, 3653-3680. doi:10.1175/MWR-D-19-0404.1.

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Item Permalink: http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0005-FA1B-4 Version Permalink: http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0006-F74B-0
Genre: Journal Article

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 Creators:
Fiedler, Stephanie1, Author              
Crueger, Traute1, Author              
D'Agostino, Roberta2, Author              
Peters, Karsten, Author
Becker, Tobias3, Author              
Leutwyler, David4, Author              
Paccini, Laura4, 5, Author              
Burdanowitz, Jörg, Author
Buehler, Stefan A., Author
Uribe, Alejandro, Author
Dauhut, Thibaut4, Author              
Dommenget, Dietmar, Author
Fraedrich, Klaus, Author
Jungandreas, Leonore2, 5, Author              
Maher, Nicola6, Author              
Naumann, Ann Kristin7, Author              
Rugenstein, Maria6, Author              
Sakradzija, Mirjana4, Author              
Schmidt, Hauke1, Author              
Sielmann, Frank, Author
Stephan, Claudia C.8, Author              Timmreck, Claudia9, Author              Zhu , Xiuhua, AuthorStevens, Bjorn10, Author               more..
Affiliations:
1Global Circulation and Climate, The Atmosphere in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, ou_3001850              
2Director’s Research Group LES, The Land in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, ou_913564              
3Climate Modelling, The Atmosphere in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, ou_913569              
4Precipitating Convection, The Atmosphere in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, ou_3001851              
5IMPRS on Earth System Modelling, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, ou_913547              
6Director’s Research Group OES, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, ou_913553              
7Drivers of tropical circulation (CLICCS JWG), The Atmosphere in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, ou_3055403              
8Cloud-wave Coupling, The Atmosphere in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, ou_3055164              
9Stratospheric Forcing and Climate, The Atmosphere in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, ou_3001852              
10Director’s Research Group AES, The Atmosphere in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, ou_913570              

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 Abstract: The representation of tropical precipitation is evaluated across three generations of models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), phases 3, 5 and 6. Compared to state-of-the-art observations, improvements in tropical precipitation in the CMIP6 models are identified for some metrics, but we find no general improvement in tropical precipitation on different temporal and spatial scales. Our results indicate overall little changes across the CMIP phases for the summer monsoons, the double-ITCZ bias and the diurnal cycle of tropical precipitation. We find a reduced amount of drizzle events in CMIP6, but tropical precipitation occurs still too frequently. Continuous improvements across the CMIP phases are identified for the number of consecutive dry days, the representation of modes of variability, namely the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the El Niño Southern Oscillation, as well as the trends in dry months in the 20th century. The observed positive trend in extreme wet months is, however, not captured by any of the CMIP phases, which simulate negative trends for extremely wet months in the 20th century. The regional biases are larger than a climate-change signal one hopes to use the models to identify. Given the pace of climate change as compared to the pace of model improvements to simulate tropical precipitation, we question the past strategy of the development of the present class of global climate models as the mainstay of the scientific response to climate change. We suggest to explore alternative approaches such as high-resolution storm-resolving models that can offer better prospects to inform us about how tropical precipitation might change with anthropogenic warming.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2019-122020-072020-072020-08
 Publication Status: Published in print
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-19-0404.1
 Degree: -

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Title: Monthly Weather Review
  Other : Mon. Weather Rev.
Source Genre: Journal
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Publ. Info: Boston, MA : American Meteorological Society
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 148 Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 3653 - 3680 Identifier: ISSN: 0027-0644
CoNE: https://pure.mpg.de/cone/journals/resource/954925426210