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  Yule-Simpson's paradox in Galactic Archaeology

Minchev, I., Matijevic, G., Hogg, D. W., Guiglion, G., Steinmetz, M., Anders, F., et al. (2019). Yule-Simpson's paradox in Galactic Archaeology. Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, 487, 3946-3957.

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Item Permalink: https://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0005-D05E-7 Version Permalink: https://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0005-D05F-6
Genre: Journal Article

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https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2019MNRAS.487.3946M (Any fulltext)
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 Creators:
Minchev, I.1, Author
Matijevic, G.1, Author
Hogg, D. W.1, Author
Guiglion, G.1, Author
Steinmetz, M.1, Author
Anders, F.1, Author
Chiappini, C.1, Author
Martig, M.1, Author
Queiroz, A.1, Author
Scannapieco, C.1, Author
Affiliations:
1Max Planck Institute for Astronomy, Max Planck Society and Cooperation Partners, ou_2421692              

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Free keywords: Galaxy: abundances Galaxy: disc Galaxy: evolution Galaxy: kinematics and dynamics Galaxy: stellar content Astrophysics - Astrophysics of Galaxies
 Abstract: Simpson's paradox, or Yule-Simpson effect, arises when a trend appears in different subsets of data but disappears or reverses when these subsets are combined. We describe here seven cases of this phenomenon for chemo-kinematical relations believed to constrain the Milky Way disc formation and evolution. We show that interpreting trends in relations, such as the radial and vertical chemical abundance gradients, the age- metallicity relation, and the metallicity-rotational velocity relation (MVR), can lead to conflicting conclusions about the Galaxy past if analyses marginalize over stellar age and/or birth radius. It is demonstrated that the MVR in RAVE giants is consistent with being always strongly negative, when narrow bins of [Mg/Fe] are considered. This is directly related to the negative radial metallicity gradients of stars grouped by common age (mono-age populations) due to the inside-out disc formation. The effect of the asymmetric drift can then give rise to a positive MVR trend in high-[α/Fe] stars, with a slope dependent on a given survey's selection function and observational uncertainties. We also study the variation of lithium abundance, A(Li), with [Fe/H] of AMBRE:HARPS dwarfs. A strong reversal in the positive A(Li)-[Fe/H] trend of the total sample is found for mono-age populations, flattening for younger groups of stars. Dissecting by birth radius shows strengthening in the positive A(Li)-[Fe/H] trend, shifting to higher [Fe/H] with decreasing birth radius; these observational results suggest new constraints on chemical evolution models. This work highlights the necessity for precise age estimates for large stellar samples covering wide spatial regions.

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 Dates: 2019
 Publication Status: Issued
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Title: Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society
Source Genre: Journal
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 487 Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 3946 - 3957 Identifier: -