English
 
Help Privacy Policy Disclaimer
  Advanced SearchBrowse

Item

ITEM ACTIONSEXPORT
  Where Do Hypotheses Come From?

Dasgupta, I., Schulz, E., & Gershman, S. (2017). Where Do Hypotheses Come From? Cognitive Psychology, 96, 1-25. doi:10.1016/j.cogpsych.2017.05.001.

Item is

Basic

show hide
Genre: Journal Article

Files

show Files

Locators

show
hide
Description:
-
OA-Status:

Creators

show
hide
 Creators:
Dasgupta, I, Author
Schulz, E1, Author           
Gershman, SJ, Author
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

Content

show
hide
Free keywords: -
 Abstract: Why are human inferences sometimes remarkably close to the Bayesian ideal and other times systematically biased? In particular, why do humans make near-rational inferences in some natural domains where the candidate hypotheses are explicitly available, whereas tasks in similar domains requiring the self-generation of hypotheses produce systematic deviations from rational inference. We propose that these deviations arise from algorithmic processes approximating Bayes' rule. Specifically in our account, hypotheses are generated stochastically from a sampling process, such that the sampled hypotheses form a Monte Carlo approximation of the posterior. While this approximation will converge to the true posterior in the limit of infinite samples, we take a small number of samples as we expect that the number of samples humans take is limited. We show that this model recreates several well-documented experimental findings such as anchoring and adjustment, subadditivity, superadditivity, the crowd within as well as the self-generation effect, the weak evidence, and the dud alternative effects. We confirm the model's prediction that superadditivity and subadditivity can be induced within the same paradigm by manipulating the unpacking and typicality of hypotheses. We also partially confirm our model's prediction about the effect of time pressure and cognitive load on these effects.

Details

show
hide
Language(s):
 Dates: 2017-08
 Publication Status: Published in print
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: -
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1016/j.cogpsych.2017.05.001
 Degree: -

Event

show

Legal Case

show

Project information

show

Source 1

show
hide
Title: Cognitive Psychology
Source Genre: Journal
 Creator(s):
Affiliations:
Publ. Info: Academic Press
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 96 Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 1 - 25 Identifier: ISSN: 0010-0285
CoNE: https://pure.mpg.de/cone/journals/resource/954922645010