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  On the contribution of internal climate variability to European future climate trends

Koenigk, T., Bärring, L., Matei, D., Nikulin, G., Strandberg, G., Tyrlis, E., et al. (2020). On the contribution of internal climate variability to European future climate trends. Tellus Series A-Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 72, 1-17. doi:10.1080/16000870.2020.1788901.

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Item Permalink: http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0006-D92C-5 Version Permalink: http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0006-D92D-4
Genre: Journal Article

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Tellus-72-2020-Königk.pdf (Publisher version), 6MB
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Koenigk, T., Author
Bärring, L., Author
Matei, Daniela1, Author              
Nikulin, G., Author
Strandberg, G., Author
Tyrlis, Evangelos1, Author              
Wang, S., Author
Wilcke, R., Author
Affiliations:
1Director’s Research Group OES, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, ou_913553              

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Free keywords: climate change; climate modeling; climate variation; CMIP; numerical model; temperature effect; temperature profile; trend analysis; uncertainty analysis
 Abstract: Large historical and future ensemble simulations from the Max-Planck Institute and the Canadian Earth System Models and from CMIP5 have been analysed to investigate the uncertainty due to internal variability in multi-decadal temperature and precipitation trends over Europe. Internal variability dominates the uncertainties in temperature and precipitation trends in all seasons at 30-year time scales. Locally, seasonal 30-year temperature trends deviate up to ±3 °C from the ensemble mean trend. Thus, in the entire of Europe, local seasonal temperature changes until year 2050 from below −1 °C up to more than 4 °C are possible according to the model results. Up to 30 of all ensemble members show negative temperature trends until year 2050 in winter, up to 10 of the members in summer. Uncertainties of 30-year precipitation trends due to internal variability exceed the trends almost everywhere in Europe. Only in few European regions more than 75 of the members agree on the sign of the change until year 2050. In southern Sweden, minimum and maximum winter (summer) temperature trends in the next 30 years differ with up to 7 °C (5 °C) between individual members of the large model ensembles. Large positive temperature trends are linked to positive (negative) precipitation trends in winter (summer) in southern Sweden. This variability is attributed to the variability in large scale atmospheric circulation trends, mainly due to internal atmospheric variability. We find only weak linkages between the variability of temperature trends and the dominant decadal to multi-decadal climate modes. This indicates that there is limited potential to predict the multi-decadal variability in climate trends. The main findings from our study are robust across the large ensembles from the different models used in this study but at the local scale, the results depend also on the choice of the model. © Tellus A: 2020. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor Francis Group.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2020-07-312020-07-31
 Publication Status: Published in print
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 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1080/16000870.2020.1788901
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Title: Tellus Series A-Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography
  Other : Tellus Ser. A-Dyn. Meteorol. Oceanol.
Source Genre: Journal
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 72 Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 1 - 17 Identifier: ISSN: 0280-6495
CoNE: https://pure.mpg.de/cone/journals/resource/954925506307