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  The challenges of containing SARS-CoV-2 via test-trace-and-isolate

Contreras, S., Dehning, J., Loidolt, M., Zierenberg, J., Spitzner, F. P., Urrea-Quintero, J. H., et al. (2021). The challenges of containing SARS-CoV-2 via test-trace-and-isolate. Nature Communications, 12: 378. doi:10.1038/s41467-020-20699-8.

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Contreras, Sebastian1, Author              
Dehning, Jonas1, Author              
Loidolt, Matthias1, Author              
Zierenberg, Johannes1, Author              
Spitzner, F. Paul1, Author              
Urrea-Quintero, Jorge H.1, Author              
Mohr, Sebastian B.1, Author              
Wilczek, Michael2, Author              
Wibral, Michael, Author
Priesemann, Viola1, Author              
Affiliations:
1Max Planck Research Group Neural Systems Theory, Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Max Planck Society, ou_2616694              
2Max Planck Research Group Theory of Turbulent Flows, Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Max Planck Society, ou_2266693              

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Free keywords: Quantitative Biology, Populations and Evolution, q-bio.PE
 Abstract: Without a cure, vaccine, or proven long-term immunity against SARS-CoV-2, test-trace-and-isolate (TTI) strategies present a promising tool to contain the viral spread. For any TTI strategy, however, a major challenge arises from pre- and asymptomatic transmission as well as TTI-avoiders, which contribute to hidden, unnoticed infection chains. In our semi-analytical model, we identified two distinct tipping points between controlled and uncontrolled spreading: one, at which the behavior-driven reproduction number of the hidden infections becomes too large to be compensated by the available TTI capabilities, and one at which the number of new infections starts to exceed the tracing capacity, causing a self-accelerating spread. We investigated how these tipping points depend on realistic limitations like limited cooperativity, missing contacts, and imperfect isolation, finding that TTI is likely not sufficient to contain the natural spread of SARS-CoV-2. Therefore, complementary measures like reduced physical contacts and improved hygiene probably remain necessary.

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 Dates: 2020-09-122020-09-122021
 Publication Status: Published in print
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Title: Nature Communications
  Abbreviation : Nat. Commun.
Source Genre: Journal
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Publ. Info: London : Nature Publishing Group
Pages: 13 Volume / Issue: 12 Sequence Number: 378 Start / End Page: - Identifier: ISSN: 2041-1723
CoNE: https://pure.mpg.de/cone/journals/resource/2041-1723