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  The German Climate Forecast System: GCFS

Fröhlich, K., Dobrynin, M., Isensee, K., Gessner, C., Paxian, A., Pohlmann, H., et al. (2021). The German Climate Forecast System: GCFS. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 13: e2020MS002101. doi:10.1029/2020MS002101.

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2020MS002101.pdf (Publisher version), 17MB
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2020MS002101.pdf
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2021
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 Creators:
Fröhlich, Kristina1, Author
Dobrynin, Mikhail1, Author
Isensee, Katharina1, Author
Gessner, Claudia1, Author
Paxian, Andreas1, Author
Pohlmann, Holger2, Author              
Haak, Helmut3, Author              
Brune, Sebastian1, Author
Früh, Barbara1, Author
Baehr, Johanna1, Author
Affiliations:
1external, ou_persistent22              
2Decadal Climate Predictions - MiKlip, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, ou_1479671              
3Director’s Research Group OES, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, ou_913553              

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Free keywords: seasonal, forecasts, Earth-system, model, development
 Abstract: AbstractSeasonal prediction is one important element in a seamless prediction chain between weather forecasts and climate projections. After several years of development in collaboration with Universität Hamburg and Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, the Deutscher Wetterdienst performs operational seasonal forecasts since 2016 with the German Climate Forecast System, now in Version 2 (GCFS2.0). Here, the configuration of previous system GCFS1.0 and the current GCFS2.0 are described and the performance of the two systems is compared over the common hindcast period of 1990-2014. In GCFS2.0, the forecast skill is improved compared to GCFS1.0 during boreal winter, especially for the Northern Hemisphere where the Pearson correlation has increased for the North Atlantic Oscillation index. Overall, a similar performance of GCFS2.0 in comparison to GCFS1.0 is assessed during the boreal summer. Future developments for climate forecasts need a stronger focus on the performance of interannual variability in a model system.This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2021-012021-01
 Publication Status: Published online
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1029/2020MS002101
 Degree: -

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Title: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
  Alternative Title : J Adv Model Earth Syst
Source Genre: Journal
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Publ. Info: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 13 Sequence Number: e2020MS002101 Start / End Page: - Identifier: ISBN: 1942-2466