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Abstract:
Compared to the first wave, the second wave of SARS-CoV-2
manifests itself strongly in newly reported cases, but less so in
death counts. However, already the increasing case numbers put
the mitigation strategy at risk, because with case numbers being
too high, local tipping points are crossed, which makes the control increasingly difficult, impedes the targeted protection of the
vulnerable people, and leads to self-accelerating spread (1, 2).
Importantly, a tipping point is reached when case numbers surpass the test-trace-and-isolate (TTI) capacity of the local health
authority, thus potentially long before hospitals are overwhelmed
(1): When TTI breaks down, testing and tracing can only be carried out insufficiently and with considerable delay, which leads to
more and more missed chains of infections. Thereby increasingly
more SARS-CoV-2 carriers remain unnoticed, and thus transmit
the virus inadvertently—also to people at risk. As unaware carriers are strong drivers of the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the case
numbers start to rise more quickly, and the spread spills over to
the vulnerable population. In the following, we present evidence
for a second wave and the crossing of this tipping point.
