English
 
Help Privacy Policy Disclaimer
  Advanced SearchBrowse

Item

ITEM ACTIONSEXPORT
 
 
DownloadE-Mail
  Past and future climate variability uncertainties in the global carbon budget using the MPI Grand Ensemble

Loughran, T., Boysen, L., Bastos, A., Hartung, K., Havermann, F., Li, H., et al. (2021). Past and future climate variability uncertainties in the global carbon budget using the MPI Grand Ensemble. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 35: e2021GB007019. doi:10.1029/2021GB007019.

Item is

Files

show Files
hide Files
:
essoar.10506639.1.pdf (Preprint), 777KB
 
File Permalink:
-
Name:
essoar.10506639.1.pdf
Description:
-
OA-Status:
Visibility:
Private
MIME-Type / Checksum:
application/pdf
Technical Metadata:
Copyright Date:
2021
Copyright Info:
© The Authors
:
2021GB007019.pdf (Publisher version), 880KB
Name:
2021GB007019.pdf
Description:
Final Revised Paper
OA-Status:
Gold
Visibility:
Public
MIME-Type / Checksum:
application/pdf / [MD5]
Technical Metadata:
Copyright Date:
2021
Copyright Info:
© The Authors

Locators

show

Creators

show
hide
 Creators:
Loughran, Tammas, Author
Boysen, Lena1, Author           
Bastos, Ana2, Author
Hartung, Kerstin, Author
Havermann, Felix, Author
Li, Hongmei3, Author           
Nabel, Julia E. M. S.4, Author                 
Obermeier, Wolfgang A., Author
Pongratz, Julia4, Author                 
Affiliations:
1Climate-Biogeosphere Interaction, The Land in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, ou_913566              
2Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Max Planck Society, Hans-Knöll-Str. 10, 07745 Jena, DE, ou_1497750              
3Ocean Biogeochemistry, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, ou_913556              
4Emmy Noether Junior Research Group Forest Management in the Earth System, The Land in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, ou_1832286              

Content

show
hide
Free keywords: -
 Abstract: Quantifying the anthropogenic sources and sinks of CO2 is important to understand the evolutionof carbon sink capacities, on which the required strength of our mitigation efforts directly depends. For the historical period, the global carbon budget (GCB) can be compiled from observations and model simulations as is done in the Global Carbon Project's (GCP) annual carbon budgets. However, the historical budget only considers a single realization of the Earth system and cannot account for internal climate variability uncertainties. Understanding the distribution of internal climate variability is critical for predicting the future carbon budget terms and uncertainties. We present here a decomposition of the GCB for the historical period and the RCP4.5 scenario using single model large ensemble simulations from the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble (MPI-GE) to capture internal variability. We calculate uncertainty ranges for the natural sinks and anthropogenic emissions that are compatible with the RCP4.5 scenario, requiring at least 40 ensemble members. The MPI-GE allows us to investigate the likelihood of historical fluxes relative to the distribution from internal climate variability. Our results show that these likelihoods have substantial fluctuations due to internal variability, which are at least partially related to ENSO. We find that the largest internal variability in the MPI-GE stems from the natural land sink and its increasing carbon stocks over time. The MPI-GE is generally consistent with GCP's global budgets with the notable exception of land-use change emissions inrecent decades, highlighting that human action is inconsistent with climate mitigation goals.

Details

show
hide
Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2021-03-182021-072021-082021-08
 Publication Status: Issued
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1029/2021GB007019
 Degree: -

Event

show

Legal Case

show

Project information

show hide
Project name : 4C
Grant ID : 821003
Funding program : Horizon 2020 (H2020)
Funding organization : European Commission (EC)

Source 1

show
hide
Title: Global Biogeochemical Cycles
  Other : Glob. Biogeochem. Cycle
Source Genre: Journal
 Creator(s):
Affiliations:
Publ. Info: Washington, DC : American Geophysical Union
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 35 Sequence Number: e2021GB007019 Start / End Page: - Identifier: ISSN: 0886-6236
CoNE: https://pure.mpg.de/cone/journals/resource/954925553383