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  A look into the future of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe: an expert consultation

Iftekhar, E. N., Priesemann, V., Balling, R., Bauer, S., Beutels, P., Calero Valdez, A., et al. (2021). A look into the future of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe: an expert consultation. The Lancet Regional Health - Europe, 8: 100185. doi:10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100185.

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 Creators:
Iftekhar, Emil Nafis1, Author              
Priesemann, Viola1, Author              
Balling, Rudi, Author
Bauer, Simon1, Author              
Beutels, Philippe, Author
Calero Valdez, André, Author
Cuschieri, Sarah, Author
Czypionka, Thomas, Author
Dumpis, Uga, Author
Glaab, Enrico, Author
Grill, Eva, Author
Hanson, Claudia, Author
Hotulainen, Pirta, Author
Klimek, Peter, Author
Kretzschmar, Mirjam, Author
Krüger, Tyll, Author
Krutzinna, Jenny, Author
Low, Nicola, Author
Machado, Helena, Author
Martins, Carlos, Author
McKee, Martin, AuthorMohr, Sebastian B.1, Author              Nassehi, Armin, AuthorPerc, Matjaž, AuthorPetelos, Elena, AuthorPickersgill, Martyn, AuthorPrainsack, Barbara, AuthorRocklöv, Joacim, AuthorSchernhammer, Eva, AuthorStaines, Anthony, AuthorSzczurek, Ewa, AuthorTsiodras, Sotirios, AuthorVan Gucht, Steven, AuthorWilleit, Peter, Author more..
Affiliations:
1Max Planck Research Group Neural Systems Theory, Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Max Planck Society, ou_2616694              

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 Abstract: How will the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic develop in the coming months and years? Based on an expert survey, we examine key aspects that are likely to influence the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. The challenges and developments will strongly depend on the progress of national and global vaccination programs, the emergence and spread of variants of concern (VOCs), and public responses to non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). In the short term, many people remain unvaccinated, VOCs continue to emerge and spread, and mobility and population mixing are expected to increase. Therefore, lifting restrictions too much and too early risk another damaging wave. This challenge remains despite the reduced opportunities for transmission given vaccination progress and reduced indoor mixing in summer 2021. In autumn 2021, increased indoor activity might accelerate the spread again, whilst a necessary reintroduction of NPIs might be too slow. The incidence may strongly rise again, possibly filling intensive care units, if vaccination levels are not high enough. A moderate, adaptive level of NPIs will thus remain necessary. These epidemiological aspects combined with economic, social, and health-related consequences provide a more holistic perspective on the future of the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2021
 Publication Status: Published in print
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: -
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100185
 Degree: -

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Title: The Lancet Regional Health - Europe
Source Genre: Journal
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Affiliations:
Publ. Info: -
Pages: 14 Volume / Issue: 8 Sequence Number: 100185 Start / End Page: - Identifier: ISSN: 26667762