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  A song of neither ice nor fire: temperature extremes had no impact on violent conflict among european societies during the 2nd Millennium CE

Carleton, W. C., Collard , M., Stewart, M., & Groucutt, H. S. (2021). A song of neither ice nor fire: temperature extremes had no impact on violent conflict among european societies during the 2nd Millennium CE. Frontiers in Earth Science, 9: 769107. doi:10.3389/feart.2021.769107.

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 Creators:
Carleton, W. Christopher1, Author              
Collard , Mark, Author
Stewart, Mathew1, Author              
Groucutt, Huw S.1, 2, Author              
Affiliations:
1Max Planck Research Group Extreme Events, Max Planck Institute for the Science of Human History, Max Planck Society, ou_3262629              
2Archaeology, Max Planck Institute for the Science of Human History, Max Planck Society, ou_2074312              

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Free keywords: Bayesian time series analysis, conflict, climate change, extreme events, Europe
 Abstract: The second millennium CE in Europe is known for both climatic extremes and bloody conflict. Europeans experienced the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age, and they suffered history-defining violence like the Wars of the Roses, Hundred Years War, and both World Wars. In this paper, we describe a quantitative study in which we sought to determine whether the climatic extremes affected conflict levels in Europe between 1,005 and 1980 CE. The study involved comparing a well-known annual historical conflict record to four published temperature reconstructions for Central and Western Europe. We developed a Bayesian regression model that allows for potential threshold effects in the climate–conflict relationship and then tested it with simulated data to confirm its efficacy. Next, we ran four analyses, each one involving the historical conflict record as the dependent variable and one of the four temperature reconstructions as the sole covariate. Our results indicated that none of the temperature reconstructions could be used to explain variation in conflict levels. It seems that shifts to extreme climate conditions may have been largely irrelevant to the conflict generating process in Europe during the second millennium CE.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2021-11-17
 Publication Status: Published online
 Pages: 13
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: Introduction
Material and methods
- The data
- Defining Extremes
- The Broken-Stick Model
- The Analyses
Results
Discussion and conclusion
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.3389/feart.2021.769107
Other: shh3110
 Degree: -

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Title: Frontiers in Earth Science
  Abbreviation : Front. Earth Sci.
Source Genre: Journal
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Publ. Info: Lausanne : Frontiers Media
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 9 Sequence Number: 769107 Start / End Page: - Identifier: ISSN: 2296-6463
CoNE: https://pure.mpg.de/cone/journals/resource/2296-6463