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  The why, what and how of predicting evolution across biology: from disease to biotechnology to biodiversity

Wortel, M. T., Agashe, D., Bailey, S. F., Bank, C., Bisschop, K., Blankers, T., et al. (2022). The why, what and how of predicting evolution across biology: from disease to biotechnology to biodiversity. EcoEvoRxiv Preprints. doi:10.32942/osf.io/4u3mg.

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Wortel, Meike T., Author
Agashe, Deepa, Author
Bailey, Susan F., Author
Bank, Claudia, Author
Bisschop, Karen, Author
Blankers, Thomas, Author
Cairns, Johannes, Author
Colizzi, Enrico Sandro, Author
Cusseddu, Davide, Author
Desai, Michael M., Author
van Dijk, Bram1, Author           
Egas, Martijn, Author
Ellers, Jacintha, Author
Groot, Astrid T., Author
Heckel, David G., Author
Johnson, Marcelle L., Author
Kraaijeveld, Ken, Author
Krug, Joachim, Author
Laan, Liedewij, Author
Laessig, Michael, Author
Lind, Peter A., AuthorMeijer, Jeroen, AuthorNoble, Luke M., AuthorOkasha, Samir, AuthorRainey, Paul B.1, Author           Rozen, Daniel E., AuthorShitut, Shraddha, AuthorTans, Sander J., AuthorTenaillon, Olivier, AuthorTeotonio, Henrique, Authorde Visser, J. Arjan G. M., AuthorVroomans, Renske M. A., AuthorWerner, Gijsbert D. A., AuthorWertheim, Bregje, AuthorPennings, Pleuni S., Author more..
1Department Microbial Population Biology, Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Biology, Max Planck Society, ou_2421699              


Free keywords: evolution, prediction, models, population genetics, disease modeling, evolutionary control, SARS-CoV2, gene drive, influenza, predictability
 Abstract: Evolution has traditionally been a historical field of study and predicting evolution into the future has long been considered challenging or even impossible. However, evolutionary predictions are increasingly being made and used in many situations in medicine, agriculture, biotechnology and conservation biology. Because every field uses their own language and makes predictions from their background, researchers are not always aware of the breadth of evolutionary predictions. Evolutionary predictions may be used for several purposes such as to prepare for the future, to try and change the course of evolution or simply to determine how well we understand an evolutionary system. Exactly what aspect of an evolving population we want to predict, such as the most common genotype, average or individual fitness, or population size, depends on the situation. In addition, there are many uses of evolutionary predictions that may not be recognized as such. Therefore, the main goal of this review is to increase awareness of methods and data that are used to make these predictions in different fields, by showing the breadth of situations in which evolutionary predictions are made. We describe how evolutionary predictions are highly diverse, but nevertheless share a common structure described by the predictive scope, horizon, precision and risk. Then, by using examples ranging from SARS-CoV2 and influenza to CRISPR-based gene drives and sustainable product formation by microorganisms, we discuss the methods for predicting evolution, factors that affect predictability, and how predictions can be used to prevent unwanted evolution or promote beneficial evolution. We hope that this review will increase collaboration between fields by creating a common language for evolutionary predictions.


Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2022-02-092021-08-252022-02-09
 Publication Status: Published online
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: EvoEvoRxiv Preprints
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: No review
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.32942/osf.io/4u3mg
 Degree: -



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Title: EcoEvoRxiv Preprints
Source Genre: Web Page
Publ. Info: -
Pages: 37 Volume / Issue: - Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: - Identifier: -